Completely agree. Who do you think upsets?
Just for the record, I haven't decided who I am picking for this weekend yet, but just to shed some more light on the underdog in divisional rounds ...
I think the lines have been somewhat inflated to the 1st round bye faves because of the extra time off and of course being better teams but we have seen the Dogs come in 13 times (65% clip) in the divisional rounds over last 5 years; 7 of 10 in the AFC.
Speaking of the AFC matchups ...
1. Hous - Balt ... no disagreement that Ravens D is stout and better, but you have to remember to cover the spread you have to score. I think it's just as recklesss to lay more than 7 with Joe Flacco period. I love Ray Rice but Hous was 4th in the league in rushing. Last 5 home games have seen the Ravens beat Cleve by 6, Indi by 14, SF by 10, Cinci by 6, and Ariz by 3, all of which have on par or worst offenses than Houston. This leads me to believe that you can't assume giving 7.5 to the bank where Hous def can easily keep the game within a score or late in the game Ravens D softens up and give up a back door cover (a win is a win).
2. Denv - Pats ... I am a Pats homer and in the past would have been "in Belichek we trust" but he's let me down in the last few years in the playoffs losing to the Jets and Baltimore even with the divisonal round byes. The part that scares me the most is that the Pats have been giving up early and big leads lately to crappy teams; Bills 21-0, Dolphins 17-0, Broncos 16-7. Granted the Pats end up covering 2 out of 3 of those games, but I'll be darned to lay 13.5 pts and then have the Broncos go 17-7 at halftime .. that means I only have TWO quarters for the Pats to make up 23.5 points to cover the number, also keeping in mind that all the Pats want to do is win the game so they're only motivated to make up 10 pts.
Like I said, I haven't capped or made my leans for this weekend yet but I just want to make some points that we can just easily dismiss the dogs this weekend. I hope everyone make a lot of money this weekend!!!
Denver better D than the Patriots D??? Just because the Pats gave up more yards per game doesn't make Denver's D better ...
Denver gave up an average of 24.4 pts per game, Pats gave up an average of 21.4 pts per game - Pats better
Denver had 41 sacks in the regular season, Pats had 40 - Even
Denver gave up 231.5 passing yds/game, Pats gave up 293.9 yds/game - Denver better
Denver gave up 126.3 rushing yds/game, Pats gave up 117.1 rushing yds/game - Pats better
If I had to choose, I would say the Pats D is better. And given Brady's ability to sustain long drives and Tebow's inability to sustain long drives makes the Pats D less of a "liability" if that's where you were headed with this.
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