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All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

Bodio's MLB Tue 09/27

«First Previous 123 ... 567 Next Last»
bodio
Qncyk1
DDH420
TucsonClip
SkySky
...
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Posts: 174
«First Previous 123 ... 567 Next Last»
 
bodio
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 3:43 PM ET #101

Quote Originally Posted by moemoney:

Jelly that you got the Jays at +121 where my book has them at ML EVEN right now

Odds are moving.  Too many of you guys pounding the Jays! 
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Quote Originally Posted by moemoney:

Jelly that you got the Jays at +121 where my book has them at ML EVEN right now

Odds are moving.  Too many of you guys pounding the Jays! 
 
Qncyk1
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 3:44 PM ET #102

dont know if baseball is any different that basketball or football but almost all these teams take it easy after they have locked in a seed to prevent injuries and rest players.

waiting for the nyy lineup. maybe tommorow is the better bet for rays.

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dont know if baseball is any different that basketball or football but almost all these teams take it easy after they have locked in a seed to prevent injuries and rest players.

waiting for the nyy lineup. maybe tommorow is the better bet for rays.

 
DDH420
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 3:44 PM ET #103

Last night the CARDS comeback fell short so I lost my play on them but I was able to hit the OVER and I'm thinking about going right back to the O 8.5 tonight. STL has played 45 overs to 31 unders and 3 pushes on the road and HOU has 47 overs and 32 unders at home.

Westbrook's L3 starts have went over the numbers as well as 2 of Sosa's L3. Neither pen is good form with STL's era at 6.75 and HOU's at 6.62 in their L10 respectively. And the UMP also likes his overs. So far in his 33 behind the plate this season he's called 25 overs with an average of 10.12 runs per contest.

I was hoping to see the STL/HOU O as at least a lean but since it's not would I please be able to get the models take ?? Thanx

p.s  I love the passion today BODs I think this is the first time I've seen where your posts suggest that your avatar may have the same facial expression as you today.
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Last night the CARDS comeback fell short so I lost my play on them but I was able to hit the OVER and I'm thinking about going right back to the O 8.5 tonight. STL has played 45 overs to 31 unders and 3 pushes on the road and HOU has 47 overs and 32 unders at home.

Westbrook's L3 starts have went over the numbers as well as 2 of Sosa's L3. Neither pen is good form with STL's era at 6.75 and HOU's at 6.62 in their L10 respectively. And the UMP also likes his overs. So far in his 33 behind the plate this season he's called 25 overs with an average of 10.12 runs per contest.

I was hoping to see the STL/HOU O as at least a lean but since it's not would I please be able to get the models take ?? Thanx

p.s  I love the passion today BODs I think this is the first time I've seen where your posts suggest that your avatar may have the same facial expression as you today.
 
Qncyk1
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 3:46 PM ET #104

glad i waited.

tommorow will be the much better play.

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glad i waited.

tommorow will be the much better play.

 
TucsonClip
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 3:47 PM ET #105

Whos hitting the 2 team parlay with the Yanks?
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Whos hitting the 2 team parlay with the Yanks?
 
SkySky
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 3:47 PM ET #106

Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


hehe...I think baseball and other major sports are a little different from poker.  Yankees won't be overlooking their opponent and thinking about round 2.  They're only focused on round 1!

Besides, neither Tampa nor Boston will make it to round 2 in my opinion.  


This is where I believe you are mistaken my friend.
If the Yankees can preserve their players, and have control over
who makes it to the playoffs, it's a win-win for them, hands down.

The Yankees have much more success against TB than the BoSox.
I'm not saying they will tank, but they will not play "ALL IN" to get the win.

Incentive in this particular situation is a HUGE factor.
Just look at Girardi's quote, and Russell Martis's quote.

The perceived edge in this match up is huge, imo.

I'm done, you get the last word, BOD.
Thanks again for all the great capping.
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


hehe...I think baseball and other major sports are a little different from poker.  Yankees won't be overlooking their opponent and thinking about round 2.  They're only focused on round 1!

Besides, neither Tampa nor Boston will make it to round 2 in my opinion.  


This is where I believe you are mistaken my friend.
If the Yankees can preserve their players, and have control over
who makes it to the playoffs, it's a win-win for them, hands down.

The Yankees have much more success against TB than the BoSox.
I'm not saying they will tank, but they will not play "ALL IN" to get the win.

Incentive in this particular situation is a HUGE factor.
Just look at Girardi's quote, and Russell Martis's quote.

The perceived edge in this match up is huge, imo.

I'm done, you get the last word, BOD.
Thanks again for all the great capping.
 
afgking4life
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 3:48 PM ET #107

Bodio, 

What are your thoughts on TEX +105 tonight? I read this on another person's thread, 


taking a look at the pitchers, I like the Lewis vs. Santana match-up. The Angels have lost the last 4 Santana starts, and Santana is 1-4 in his L5 vs. Texas (22 ERs in 33 innings). 

Lewis on the other hand is no stud, but he's had some success on the road with a 3.45 ERA compared to his overall ERA of 4.45. He shut out the Angels in his last outing in Anaheim going a strong 7 giving up 4 hits giving up 0 runs. Overall this year he has a close to 3-1 K:BB ratio, but on the road alone...he's close to 4:1. 

Now let's see how these batters fare against these pitchers.

Texas Batters vs. Ervin Santana:
Kinsler 18/47 .383 
Andrus 11/31 .355 
Hamilton 6/31 .194
Young 26/74 .351
Beltre 11/49 .224
Napoli 3/10 .300
Cruz 10/36 .278
Murphy 5/25 .200
Torrealba 3/7 .429

By comparing yesterday's line-up, the Texas batters here are hitting .300 lifetime vs. Santana.

Anaheim Angels vs. Colby Lewis:
Izturis 1/6 .167
Bourjos 3/13 .231
Kendrick 3/15 .200
Hunter 2/16 .125
Wells 4/18 .222
Trumbo 4/10 .400
Callaspo 0/6 .000
Aybar 1/5 .200
Mathis 2/5 .400
Abreu 4/13 .308

Angels batters are hitting .247 vs. Lewis, with a smaller sample size! 
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Bodio, 

What are your thoughts on TEX +105 tonight? I read this on another person's thread, 


taking a look at the pitchers, I like the Lewis vs. Santana match-up. The Angels have lost the last 4 Santana starts, and Santana is 1-4 in his L5 vs. Texas (22 ERs in 33 innings). 

Lewis on the other hand is no stud, but he's had some success on the road with a 3.45 ERA compared to his overall ERA of 4.45. He shut out the Angels in his last outing in Anaheim going a strong 7 giving up 4 hits giving up 0 runs. Overall this year he has a close to 3-1 K:BB ratio, but on the road alone...he's close to 4:1. 

Now let's see how these batters fare against these pitchers.

Texas Batters vs. Ervin Santana:
Kinsler 18/47 .383 
Andrus 11/31 .355 
Hamilton 6/31 .194
Young 26/74 .351
Beltre 11/49 .224
Napoli 3/10 .300
Cruz 10/36 .278
Murphy 5/25 .200
Torrealba 3/7 .429

By comparing yesterday's line-up, the Texas batters here are hitting .300 lifetime vs. Santana.

Anaheim Angels vs. Colby Lewis:
Izturis 1/6 .167
Bourjos 3/13 .231
Kendrick 3/15 .200
Hunter 2/16 .125
Wells 4/18 .222
Trumbo 4/10 .400
Callaspo 0/6 .000
Aybar 1/5 .200
Mathis 2/5 .400
Abreu 4/13 .308

Angels batters are hitting .247 vs. Lewis, with a smaller sample size! 
 
bodio
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 3:51 PM ET #108

Quote Originally Posted by TucsonClip:

Yakess lineup

1. Eduardo Nunez (R) SS
2. Curtis Granderson (L) CF
3. Robinson Cano (L) 2B
4. Alex Rodriguez (R) 3B
5. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B
6. Nick Swisher (S) RF
7. Jorge Posada (S) DH
8. Russell Martin (R) C
9. Brett Gardner (L) LF


Wow...6 lefties!  I love it!
If Girardi was tanking, I don't think he'd be putting so many lefties in the lineup.  Also, the only significant player sitting is Jeter! 


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Quote Originally Posted by TucsonClip:

Yakess lineup

1. Eduardo Nunez (R) SS
2. Curtis Granderson (L) CF
3. Robinson Cano (L) 2B
4. Alex Rodriguez (R) 3B
5. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B
6. Nick Swisher (S) RF
7. Jorge Posada (S) DH
8. Russell Martin (R) C
9. Brett Gardner (L) LF


Wow...6 lefties!  I love it!
If Girardi was tanking, I don't think he'd be putting so many lefties in the lineup.  Also, the only significant player sitting is Jeter! 


 
JMAG
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 3:51 PM ET #109

Thinking about a STL ML and Bomber RL parlay.  What do you guys think?  Obviously anything can happen but I feel like they are both solid plays.
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Thinking about a STL ML and Bomber RL parlay.  What do you guys think?  Obviously anything can happen but I feel like they are both solid plays.
 
CRS
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 3:52 PM ET #110

Bodio you deserve much credit to the time you put into your thread. With so many question,comments and a hodgepod of both postive and negative comments, you keep your cool and answer all in a very polite fashion. I commend you on your work and unselfish time you spend to help all of us. Thank you sir!!!
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Bodio you deserve much credit to the time you put into your thread. With so many question,comments and a hodgepod of both postive and negative comments, you keep your cool and answer all in a very polite fashion. I commend you on your work and unselfish time you spend to help all of us. Thank you sir!!!
 
JMAG
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 3:52 PM ET #111

Quote Originally Posted by TucsonClip:

Yakess lineup

1. Eduardo Nunez (R) SS
2. Curtis Granderson (L) CF
3. Robinson Cano (L) 2B
4. Alex Rodriguez (R) 3B
5. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B
6. Nick Swisher (S) RF
7. Jorge Posada (S) DH
8. Russell Martin (R) C
9. Brett Gardner (L) LF



Obviously not 'Tanking' with this lineup
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Quote Originally Posted by TucsonClip:

Yakess lineup

1. Eduardo Nunez (R) SS
2. Curtis Granderson (L) CF
3. Robinson Cano (L) 2B
4. Alex Rodriguez (R) 3B
5. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B
6. Nick Swisher (S) RF
7. Jorge Posada (S) DH
8. Russell Martin (R) C
9. Brett Gardner (L) LF



Obviously not 'Tanking' with this lineup
 
Qncyk1
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 4:01 PM ET #112

Quote Originally Posted by JMAG:



Obviously not 'Tanking' with this lineup

nope. i dont understand this guy. maybe he thinks two days off is sufficient for his club(wed,thurs) after a 23 inning dbheader and arrival at 5:00 in the morning followed by back to back to back.

i dont understand girardi and i'm glad i did not bet rays tonight

unfuckingbelievable.

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Quote Originally Posted by JMAG:



Obviously not 'Tanking' with this lineup

nope. i dont understand this guy. maybe he thinks two days off is sufficient for his club(wed,thurs) after a 23 inning dbheader and arrival at 5:00 in the morning followed by back to back to back.

i dont understand girardi and i'm glad i did not bet rays tonight

unfuckingbelievable.

 
SkySky
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 4:01 PM ET #113

Quote Originally Posted by JMAG:



Obviously not 'Tanking' with this lineup


Unfortunately for New York, Bartolo Colon is still your starting pitcher.
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Quote Originally Posted by JMAG:



Obviously not 'Tanking' with this lineup


Unfortunately for New York, Bartolo Colon is still your starting pitcher.
 
TucsonClip
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 4:02 PM ET #114

Quote Originally Posted by SkySky:



Unfortunately for New York, Bartolo Colon is still your starting pitcher.

I could pitch for the Yankees with that lineup behind me
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Quote Originally Posted by SkySky:



Unfortunately for New York, Bartolo Colon is still your starting pitcher.

I could pitch for the Yankees with that lineup behind me
 
bodio
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 4:03 PM ET #115

[Quote: Originally Posted by bodio]
2011 MLB Record:
197 - 153 @ 56% for +25.08 Units




Tue 09/27

#1: Toronto Blue Jays +121


White Sox have never seen Alvarez before and the kid has great stuff. Toronto is the 5th best hitting team against Buehrle, who's been struggling lately, and is on the down-slope of his career. I could say that I'm backing a better starter and a better offense in this one. But honestly, the fact that Ozzie won't be on the ChiSox sidelines for the first time in the last 8 years could be the greatest factor here. Baseball is a mental game, and it will be very 'different' for these White Sox players in their first game without their 'old' skipper.

====================================

Action Parlay:
Giants ML / Barcelona ML (SPL) -130
(combined odds)

Good luck!

_________________

Adding:

#2: New York Yankees +1.5 RL -125

See the discussion in this thread for analysis as to why Yankees are the play today!

=================================

Action parlay #2:
Yankees ML / Blue Jays ML: +450
(combined odds)

good luck!



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[Quote: Originally Posted by bodio]
2011 MLB Record:
197 - 153 @ 56% for +25.08 Units




Tue 09/27

#1: Toronto Blue Jays +121


White Sox have never seen Alvarez before and the kid has great stuff. Toronto is the 5th best hitting team against Buehrle, who's been struggling lately, and is on the down-slope of his career. I could say that I'm backing a better starter and a better offense in this one. But honestly, the fact that Ozzie won't be on the ChiSox sidelines for the first time in the last 8 years could be the greatest factor here. Baseball is a mental game, and it will be very 'different' for these White Sox players in their first game without their 'old' skipper.

====================================

Action Parlay:
Giants ML / Barcelona ML (SPL) -130
(combined odds)

Good luck!

_________________

Adding:

#2: New York Yankees +1.5 RL -125

See the discussion in this thread for analysis as to why Yankees are the play today!

=================================

Action parlay #2:
Yankees ML / Blue Jays ML: +450
(combined odds)

good luck!



 
SkySky
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 4:04 PM ET #116

Line jumped up to TB -192 after the lineups were announced.

Holding steady at TB -148.
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Line jumped up to TB -192 after the lineups were announced.

Holding steady at TB -148.
 
bodio
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 4:07 PM ET #117

Quote Originally Posted by SkySky:

Line jumped up to TB -192 after the lineups were announced.

Holding steady at TB -148.


it's drop!
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Quote Originally Posted by SkySky:

Line jumped up to TB -192 after the lineups were announced.

Holding steady at TB -148.


it's drop!
 
TucsonClip
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 4:10 PM ET #118

Riding with you on the 3 Bombers and Jays picks
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Riding with you on the 3 Bombers and Jays picks
 
ionutt79
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 4:13 PM ET #119

best of luck Bodio

today I like NY Mets and CHI Cubs, what do you think about these two?
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best of luck Bodio

today I like NY Mets and CHI Cubs, what do you think about these two?
 
bodio
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 4:16 PM ET #120

Quote Originally Posted by SkySky:



This is where I believe you are mistaken my friend.
If the Yankees can preserve their players, and have control over
who makes it to the playoffs, it's a win-win for them, hands down.

The Yankees have much more success against TB than the BoSox.
I'm not saying they will tank, but they will not play "ALL IN" to get the win.

Incentive in this particular situation is a HUGE factor.
Just look at Girardi's quote, and Russell Martis's quote.

The perceived edge in this match up is huge, imo.

I'm done, you get the last word, BOD.
Thanks again for all the great capping.

Girardi will play to win.  Martin's quote was prior to Yankee's series with the Red Sox.  Of course he wanted to beat them and they did:  2 out of 3.  

At this point of the season, Yankees don't care who they'll face.  They are the best team in the AL IMO.  Past results don't matter.  

either way, good luck today.  Great discussion.
Enjoy the game! 
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Quote Originally Posted by SkySky:



This is where I believe you are mistaken my friend.
If the Yankees can preserve their players, and have control over
who makes it to the playoffs, it's a win-win for them, hands down.

The Yankees have much more success against TB than the BoSox.
I'm not saying they will tank, but they will not play "ALL IN" to get the win.

Incentive in this particular situation is a HUGE factor.
Just look at Girardi's quote, and Russell Martis's quote.

The perceived edge in this match up is huge, imo.

I'm done, you get the last word, BOD.
Thanks again for all the great capping.

Girardi will play to win.  Martin's quote was prior to Yankee's series with the Red Sox.  Of course he wanted to beat them and they did:  2 out of 3.  

At this point of the season, Yankees don't care who they'll face.  They are the best team in the AL IMO.  Past results don't matter.  

either way, good luck today.  Great discussion.
Enjoy the game! 
 
bodio
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 4:17 PM ET #121

Quote Originally Posted by ionutt79:

best of luck Bodio

today I like NY Mets and CHI Cubs, what do you think about these two?
.

I think I have those in my 'strong leans' bucket.
Laid off the Cubs since their lineup has a bunch of youngsters in it. 
Laid off the Mets cause Reds are excellent against lefties this year.  

good luck
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Quote Originally Posted by ionutt79:

best of luck Bodio

today I like NY Mets and CHI Cubs, what do you think about these two?
.

I think I have those in my 'strong leans' bucket.
Laid off the Cubs since their lineup has a bunch of youngsters in it. 
Laid off the Mets cause Reds are excellent against lefties this year.  

good luck
 
bodio
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 4:18 PM ET #122

Quote Originally Posted by afgking4life:

Bodio, 

What are your thoughts on TEX +105 tonight? I read this on another person's thread, 


sure, why not?  How long is Lewis pitching though? 
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Quote Originally Posted by afgking4life:

Bodio, 

What are your thoughts on TEX +105 tonight? I read this on another person's thread, 


sure, why not?  How long is Lewis pitching though? 
 
bodio
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 4:21 PM ET #123

Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:

Last night the CARDS comeback fell short so I lost my play on them but I was able to hit the OVER and I'm thinking about going right back to the O 8.5 tonight. STL has played 45 overs to 31 unders and 3 pushes on the road and HOU has 47 overs and 32 unders at home.


Westbrook's L3 starts have went over the numbers as well as 2 of Sosa's L3. Neither pen is good form with STL's era at 6.75 and HOU's at 6.62 in their L10 respectively. And the UMP also likes his overs. So far in his 33 behind the plate this season he's called 25 overs with an average of 10.12 runs per contest.

I was hoping to see the STL/HOU O as at least a lean but since it's not would I please be able to get the models take ?? Thanx

p.s  I love the passion today BODs I think this is the first time I've seen where your posts suggest that your avatar may have the same facial expression as you today.

haha...That made me laugh. 

I have the total at 9 in the Cards/Houston game by the way. 
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Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:

Last night the CARDS comeback fell short so I lost my play on them but I was able to hit the OVER and I'm thinking about going right back to the O 8.5 tonight. STL has played 45 overs to 31 unders and 3 pushes on the road and HOU has 47 overs and 32 unders at home.


Westbrook's L3 starts have went over the numbers as well as 2 of Sosa's L3. Neither pen is good form with STL's era at 6.75 and HOU's at 6.62 in their L10 respectively. And the UMP also likes his overs. So far in his 33 behind the plate this season he's called 25 overs with an average of 10.12 runs per contest.

I was hoping to see the STL/HOU O as at least a lean but since it's not would I please be able to get the models take ?? Thanx

p.s  I love the passion today BODs I think this is the first time I've seen where your posts suggest that your avatar may have the same facial expression as you today.

haha...That made me laugh. 

I have the total at 9 in the Cards/Houston game by the way. 
 
gd2436
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 4:34 PM ET #124

Quote Originally Posted by composite:

Maybe tanking is too strong. But I don't think the Yanks will be giving 100%. It's human nature to prefer one opponent vs another.  I think it's clear that the Yanks would rather play the Rays.  After clinching the East division, the Yanks laid a complete egg the next day. Colon was horrible that day, as a matter of fact.  Perhaps you can attribute it to the post-celebration hangover.  But the fact is -- the Yanks didn't care if they gave away a game to the Rays. 

Then the next day, Martin declares that he wants to knock out the Sox.  Yanks have a losing head-to-head vs the Sox this year. I doubt that the Yanks are afraid of anybody, but IMO, I think they'd prefer playing the Rays.  They have a winning head-to-head vs them. The home field advantage isn't as significant @ the Trop vs Fenway. Plus, I think the Yanks like the idea that they knocked out the Sox, however it happens.

It's like asking which child a parent prefers. There's a preference, but no parent wants to actually say it.  Same with playoff opponents.

It's a theory.  There's no way to prove or disprove it.  But my belief is that the Yanks won't be giving 100% during the TB series.

 

hey composite..... breaking news!!....BODIO is also "tanking it" for the remainder of the season!!...he has lost his desire till the play offs!!!...better stay away.....hahahahah!!!!!

 

i think you are putting way to much emphasis on this "tanking" issue rather than following the ability of the players in these games...think more objectively and less subjectively like the mind games category i think "tanking " would come under...how is that for a psychological analysis of the word, TANKING!....hahahaa!

anyways, good luck today whoever you choose to wager on!

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Quote Originally Posted by composite:

Maybe tanking is too strong. But I don't think the Yanks will be giving 100%. It's human nature to prefer one opponent vs another.  I think it's clear that the Yanks would rather play the Rays.  After clinching the East division, the Yanks laid a complete egg the next day. Colon was horrible that day, as a matter of fact.  Perhaps you can attribute it to the post-celebration hangover.  But the fact is -- the Yanks didn't care if they gave away a game to the Rays. 

Then the next day, Martin declares that he wants to knock out the Sox.  Yanks have a losing head-to-head vs the Sox this year. I doubt that the Yanks are afraid of anybody, but IMO, I think they'd prefer playing the Rays.  They have a winning head-to-head vs them. The home field advantage isn't as significant @ the Trop vs Fenway. Plus, I think the Yanks like the idea that they knocked out the Sox, however it happens.

It's like asking which child a parent prefers. There's a preference, but no parent wants to actually say it.  Same with playoff opponents.

It's a theory.  There's no way to prove or disprove it.  But my belief is that the Yanks won't be giving 100% during the TB series.

 

hey composite..... breaking news!!....BODIO is also "tanking it" for the remainder of the season!!...he has lost his desire till the play offs!!!...better stay away.....hahahahah!!!!!

 

i think you are putting way to much emphasis on this "tanking" issue rather than following the ability of the players in these games...think more objectively and less subjectively like the mind games category i think "tanking " would come under...how is that for a psychological analysis of the word, TANKING!....hahahaa!

anyways, good luck today whoever you choose to wager on!

 
 
KinkyTwinky
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Posted: Sep. 27, 2011 - 4:56 PM ET #125

Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


It's Barca in their SPL game on Saturday...not their Champs League match


Hey Bodio, great work this year.

Is the Barcelona game mentioned above

On Oct 2nd, Sunday at 2:00pm EST against Sporting de Gijón?

Im having some trouble tracking down this soccer game you speak of.
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


It's Barca in their SPL game on Saturday...not their Champs League match


Hey Bodio, great work this year.

Is the Barcelona game mentioned above

On Oct 2nd, Sunday at 2:00pm EST against Sporting de Gijón?

Im having some trouble tracking down this soccer game you speak of.
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