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***GWarner27's 8/9 MLB Picks (84-91-4 48% YTD)***

Forum: MLB Betting
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: ***GWarner27's 8/9 MLB Picks (84-91-4 48% YTD)***
GWarner27 PM GWarner27
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 20962
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Posted: 8/9/2012 12:42:18 AM

Dogs 49-54 +8.971
Favs 13-12 -1.391
RLs 0-0 +0.00
1st 5 3-5-1 -2.15
Over 6-13-3 -7.61
Under 11-7 +3.75
Team Totals 0-0 +0.00
Parlay 2-0 +2.237

April 23-19-1 +6.88
May 20-26 -2.823
June 18-14-1 +5.491
July 20-21-2 +1.421
August 3-11 -7.162
September 0-0 +0.00
October 0-0 +0.00

New York NL UNDER 84.5 (-125): 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20

-Can't feel bad for myself anymore, just going to have to make some changes because what had me up over 16U isn't working anymore. I'll summarize how bad the streak was once I have a reasonable turnaround, but i've had one winning day since 7/29
-Mets got smoked, lone bright spot of the day
-Cards struggled to hit early and then Joe Kelly fell apart (aided by an error on a taylor-made DP ball to 2B)
-Clayton Richard tossed a shutout when I had an over. Watching the Cubs and Pads strand so many runners at 3rd was infuriating. I like the Padres a lot because I think they have good players, but it's pretty inexcusable to see what they couldn't do against Samardzija. Cubs didn't do much either
-Greinke walked 5 in an inning and my under umpire got his bell rung on a Greinke/Ianetta miscommunication that ended up shrinking the zone. He did ring up two guys on the 2nd strike before being replaced by 2B ump Iassogna. LAA lineup too good for the rookie to get through more than once and the ball jumped yesterday in a park where that only happens during the day (shouldn't have let myself back Miller so recklessly)
GWarner27 PM GWarner27
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 20962
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Posted: 8/9/2012 12:49:51 AM
Full-game losers when 1st 5 hit: 3
1st 5 losers when full-game hit: 1
Wins given away for lower juice: 1
Blown Saves in 9th or later: 9 (Francisco (2), League, Hanrahan, Perkins, Johnson, Casilla, Frieri, Isringhausen)

Thursday guesses:
NYM -145/7.5 jd
StL -125/7.5o15 bw
PIT -125/8u15 sr
CHC +140 Lv
HOU +160/7.5o15 zh
DET -125/8u15 kf
TB -170/7.5u15 am
BAL -200/7.5o15 sc
CLE +120/8.5 bj

CHC over
DET under

HOU +185
DET u9
KC +195
BOS -110

plan to lean:
HOU +175
DET u8
BOS -120
KC +180

TB: Johnson (over)
HOU: Hickox (neutral to over)
NYM: Barry (neutral to over)
DET: Tichenor (neutral)
PIT: Marquez (over)
StL: Runge (under)

updated plan to leans:
HOU +175
DET u8
BOS -120
KC +180

Leans (53-68 2H, 2-3 yesterday):
Bal u8.5: pending
Nym o6.5: Barry

On the radar:
Det u9: Tichenor
Hou +169

Locked in:
San Francisco-St. Louis UNDER 7.5 (-110)

-Didn't want to pay 20 cents for the u8, but I will take the reasonable juice on 7.5 with Runge giving two good pitchers a big zone. Wainwright struggled in a day game in at&t park thanks to a bunch of errors in the first inning, but I think he's a much better pitcher now and Bumgarner can limit any lineup in the world. I expect both starters to go deep in this one, which hopefully means little SF bullpen if we can get a home win in regulation. This was all written before watching the game, needless to say I doubt I see the Giants scoring 15 runs again nor performing as well when they've clinched a split. The only "good" bullpen used was Boggs as Rzepcynksi only threw 8 pitches, so 15 runs wasn't as damaging as expected. Furcal should be back to help on defense, though he's a plus offensively.
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