Suns vs Timberwolves Predictions, Picks, and Odds for Today’s NBA Game

With almost none of the playoff seeds set in stone, Sunday will be one of the wildest finishes in NBA history. The Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves are playing in just one of several matchups that will prove critical to how the standings ultimately shake out. 

My NBA picks and Suns vs. Wolves predictions believe the NBA odds fundamentally misunderstand the kind of team that Phoenix has become down the stretch of the season.

Suns vs Timberwolves predictions

My best bet
Under 217.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

My analysis
The surface-level analysis of this matchup might pitch it as something like the high-powered offense of the Phoenix Suns meets the stalwart defense of the Minnesota Timberwolves, but that wouldn’t be quite right.

While the Timberwolves live up to that billing, the Suns actually profile much more similarly to Minnesota than they do to a team like the Pacers that ranks among the best offenses and worst defenses.

While they haven’t shown it consistently, the Suns are a Frank Vogel team at heart. That’s a team that wins through defense and picks all the low-hanging fruit that makes a sound defensive squad. 

Being better at corralling ball handlers is improvement No. 1, with Bradley Beal doing yeoman’s work at the point of attack. Beal has had some really solid moments as an on-ball defender in the past few weeks, including a game-winning strip against De’Aaron Fox on Friday night.

Another thing the Suns are doing is controlling the pace of the game much more. In recent weeks, Phoenix has been playing noticeably slower and it’s showing in a couple of key areas.

They are sacrificing punch on the offensive glass to focus on matching up in transition. Opponents are getting into transition offense against them less frequently as a result, and they’re also ending fewer possessions with tip-in scores of their own. 

It’s led to them improving as a defense while also seeing their offensive rating slide. All of that is producing much lower scores than oddsmakers have predicted, with the Under cashing in five of the Suns' last six games.

Over the past two weeks, Phoenix has been the second-best defense with a 106.9 rating, and the 19th-ranked offense. Ironically, that is almost identical to the standard formula for the Timberwolves, who — for the season — are the best defense in the NBA with the 16th-ranked offense.

The Wolves defensive bonafides are well established but there are reasons to think their offense won’t be at its best on Sunday.

Karl-Anthony Towns made his return on Friday against the Atlanta Hawks, but he’s a long way from being at the level he was at before his recent meniscus surgery. There’s a chance that he doesn’t even play on Sunday as he’s officially questionable as Minnesota looks to manage his knee.

Anthony Edwards was also a late addition to the injury report due to an illness. Given the potential for the Wolves to capture the No. 1 seed in the West with a win, I’d be shocked if Edwards doesn’t play, but if the illness was severe enough for him to be added to the injury report, I’d also be surprised if it didn’t negatively impact him as well. 

With Towns out or limited, Minnesota relies heavily on Ant to generate offense. If he’s limited as well and Phoenix continues their work to prevent transition offense, both teams could struggle to score in this one.

Suns vs Timberwolves same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 217.5

Anthony Edwards Under 24.5 points

Rudy Gobert Over 12.5 rebouds

+430 at DraftKings

Part of my thinking with Gobert as the third leg of my SGP is that the Wolves offense is going to be a bit off overall on Sunday, and that will create a lot of chances on the offensive glass. Also, as the Suns seem to be focusing on transition defense at the expense of offensive rebounding, Gobert shouldn’t have much difficulty racking up big numbers on the defensive glass.

Gobert has had 14+ rebounds in seven of his last 10 games. While one of the exceptions did come against Phoenix, that just means Gobert will be all too eager to dominate this matchup with a bounceback performance on the glass. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Suns vs Timberwolves odds

Suns vs Timberwolves live odds

Suns vs Timberwolves opening odds

• Spread: Phoenix +4.5 | Minnesota -4.5
• Moneyline: Phoenix +15- | Minnesota -190
• Over/Under: Over 215.5 | Under 215.5

Suns vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis

• Minnesota opened as -4.5 point favorites over Phoenix, but that has gradually been bet down to as little as -1.5 as of Saturday night.
  
  
• The Timberwolves are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
  
  
• Sunday’s total opened between 215.5 and 216, and action on the Over has seen that bump up slightly to 217.5 at some sportsbooks.
  
  
• The Under is 22-17-1 in Timberwolves home games, and 22-18 in Suns road games.

Suns vs Timberwolves trend

The Under 5-1 in the Suns' last six games. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Timberwolves.

Suns vs Timberwolves game info

Suns vs Timberwolves latest injuries

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