Rangers vs Braves Sunday Night Baseball Prop Bets: Ozuna Outshines Competition

Prop bet #1: Seager seizes opportunity

Atlanta Braves starter Darius Vines presents a tough matchup based on limited data for most of the Texas Rangers batters, but not Corey Seager. That's why I'm jumping on the Corey Seager odds for him to grab at least two total bases tonight.

Vines' putaway pitch is his changeup (+2 run value), but Seager is batting .545 against it this year after hitting it at a .313 clip a year ago. Vines sets up batters with his fastball and cutter, but the balanced Seager is hitting .286 and .500, respectively, against those two pitches. He's only put eight cutters into play this year, but Seager hit .360 against the pitch in 28 chances in 2023.

Once Vines exits, the Braves 17th-ranked bullpen by ERA over the last two weeks (3.98) takes over.

The Rangers No. 2 batter is hitting .310 vs. righties this year with all three of his extra-base hits on the year coming off of orthodox pitchers. Whether he gets two singles, a double, or even a long-overdue home run (the 33-homer hitter in consecutive years hasn't gone deep since April 2), I anticipate Seager driving the Rangers offense tonight.

Corey Seager prop: Over 1.5 total bases (-110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Appreciating Acuna 

I don't have much faith at all in Rangers journeyman starter Michael Lorenzen successfully negotiating this Braves lineup tonight, especially on the road with the wind blowing out at nearly 10 mph at Truist Park. A logical Brave batter to back tonight is Ronald Acuna Jr., who I believe will get to at least two total bases.

Acuna has just one hit through two games in this series, but he's also been put on base via the walk three times with a HBP mixed in. Lorenzen walked five batters in his lone start to date this year and has struggled with control to some extent in his MLB career (3.6 BB/9), but Acuna should also get at least two at-bats vs. the Rangers shoddy bullpen that sports a 5.67 ERA over the last two weeks, 28th in the big leagues.

Acuna had a +12 run value or higher vs. the fastball, slider, and sinker — Lorenzen's three primary offerings — in 2023. He's batting just .118 vs. fastballs in 2024, but over .400 vs. both the sinker and slider. 

The Venezuela native reached the two total base plateau in six of eight games prior to this weekend.

Ronald Acuna Jr. prop: Over 1.5 total bases (-125 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Ozuna comes up clutch

It's been an incredible 2024 thus far for Marcell Ozuna, as he leads the majors in both homers (eight) and RBI (24) while ranking second in OPS (1.088). His current .338 batting average is tied for a career-high set in 2020. 

Picking up RBIs is nothing new for Ozuna, as he's twice reached triple-digits in his 12-year career. Though his Hack Wilson-like pace is due to fall off eventually, I don't believe that regression will begin tonight vs. Lorenzen and the Texas relief corps.

Ozuna has a run value of +3 or better vs. the fastball, slider, and sinker this year, one year after recording a +6 or better against each of those offerings. He should be able to handle just about anything Lorenzen throws his way, and nobody's better than the Braves at getting on base (.360 OBP) in 2024. That means Ozuna should have lots of RBI opportunities on Sunday night. Plus, there's always the chance that Ozuna drives himself in and builds on his MLB lead in dingers.

Marcell Ozuna prop: Over 0.5 RBI (+123 at BetRivers)