The St. Louis Cardinals and Detroit Tigers meet up to play a doubleheader today at Comerica Park.
My Cardinals vs. Tigers predictions are focused on Game 1 as Jack Flaherty makes his first start against his former club.
He could be in for a bumpy ride. Follow along for my best MLB picks on Tuesday, April 30.
Cardinals vs Tigers prediction
My best bet
Nolan Gorman Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+135 at BetMGM)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Jack Flaherty was supposed to be the St. Louis Cardinals' ace of the future. He showed incredible promise in 2018 and emerged as a frontline starter in 2019. After that, injuries and ineffectiveness ultimately led to his midseason trade to the Baltimore Orioles in 2023 before he latched on with the Detroit Tigers this past offseason. Things haven't entirely been corrected since leaving the Cards, either, as he's posted a 4.91 ERA in five starts with Detroit heading into today's reunion match.
That ERA is a little misleading as he's posted a 3.64 FIP and has bumped up his strikeout rate from 22.8% in 2023 to 29% while cutting his walk rate from an abominable 10.2% to an excellent 3.2% (that would be a career-best if extrapolated across a whole season).
Even if you buy the corrections he's making with the help of Tigers pitching coach Chris Fetter, Flaherty has been prone to serving up the long ball and continues to struggle vs. left-handed bats, which will play to Nolan Gorman's advantage.
Gorman has struggled to start the season but has shown some signs that he might be on the verge of breaking out. For one, his 13.1% barrel rate is among the best in baseball. When he makes contact, he's squaring up the ball. He's also cleared his hits + runs + RBI prop in three of his last five games. Yes, he bats in the lower half of the Cardinals lineup, but he has generally been trusted more frequently against right-handed hurlers.
His relative struggles, however, are why we're getting +135 odds for him to go Over 1.5 H+R+RBI. Compare that to the +105 for first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and -105 for Lars Nootbaar — both of which are solid plays — and I like the value with Gorman. Covers' player prop projections powered by The BAT X anticipate 1.9 hits + runs + RBI for Gorman this afternoon.
Cardinals vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)
Nolan Gorman 2+ total bases
Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 total bases
Over 8.5
The matchup with Flaherty bodes well for St. Louis' lefty bats, and with the hits + runs + RBI market not available for the SGP, I'm pivoting to Gorman and Nootbaar to each grab 2+ total bases. Gorman's is the alternate line as his Over 0.5 is a reasonable -135 if you want to take less of a risk with a worse multiplier.
Comerica Park isn't a hitter's paradise, particularly for home runs, but it does have big gaps in the outfield, which can result in more extra-base hits that stay in the park.
With the Cardinals countering Flaherty with soft-tossing Kyle Gibson, who allowed more hits than anyone in the AL last season, the ball will be flying in the warm afternoon weather.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cardinals vs Tigers odds
Cardinals vs Tigers live odds
Cardinals vs Tigers opening odds
- Run line: St. Louis +1.5 (-190) | Detroit -1.5 (+155)
- Moneyline: St. Louis +104 | Detroit -121
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-106) | Under 8.5 (-114)
Cardinals vs Tigers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The moneyline has shifted slightly in Detroit's favor since opening and now sits between -125 and -133.
- The total has mostly stayed at 8.5 with the Over anywhere from even money to -110.
- A few books are offering an O/U of 8.0 with the Over at -125 and Under at +105 or -105.
- Covers consensus shows 57% of bets are on the Tigers and 55% of bets targeting the Under.
Cardinals vs Tigers trend
The Detroit Tigers have only hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 58 games (-15.12 Units / -22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Tigers
Cardinals vs Tigers game info
| Location: | Comerica Park, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSMW, BSDET |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Kyle Gibson (2-2, 4.35 ERA) |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | Jack Flaherty (0-1, 4.91 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Tigers latest injuries
Cardinals vs Tigers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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