MLB action on Friday begins with an afternoon showdown between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs. This will be the highly-anticipated second career start for Pittsburgh's Paul Skenes, who was the No. 1 pick overall in last year's draft.
Skenes was a bit up-and-down in his Big League debut last week but my MLB picks and Pirates vs. Cubs predictions for today are projecting a strong performance from the Pirates prodigy.
Pirates vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Paul Skenes Over 6.5 strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Expectations are high for Paul Skenes after the Pittsburgh Pirates selected him with the first pick overall in the 2023 MLB Draft. Despite being just 21 years old, he was called up last week after dominating at Triple-A Indianapolis, with a 0.99 ERA and 45 strikeouts through 27 1/3 innings.
Coincidentally, he made his MLB debut against the Chicago Cubs and while he gave up a lot of hard contact and surrendered three runs through four innings, he also fanned seven batters.
The 6-foot-6 Skenes is a fireballer that touches 100 mph on his fastball and also throws a devastating splinker at 95 mph with great movement. Chicago has a below-average lineup when it comes to plate discipline, with the Cubs ranking 19th in the majors in strikeout rate (23.1%) and 21st in whiff rate (26.7%).
While the Cubs were able to make solid contact against Skenes in his debut, there are a few reasons I don't expect them to have as much success this time around. The Cubs are batting just .227 against righties this season and they've been inconsistent at the dish, getting shut out three times in their last eight games.
The wind at Wrigley Field is also blowing towards the infield at about 9 mph and Chicago's team total is sitting at 3.5. Since Skenes was able to fan seven batters in just four innings of work last week, he should be able to eclipse 6.5 Ks if he pitches deeper in this contest.
Pirates vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Paul Skenes Over 6.5 strikeouts
Kyle Hendricks Under 2.5 earned runs
Nico Hoerner Over 0.5 hits
The Cubs are giving the pill to struggling long-time starter Kyle Hendricks. That said, he pitched a gem against Pittsburgh last week, allowing just two hits through five innings of one-run ball.
He's been pitching well against the Buccos in recent years, posting a 1.50 ERA in his last five starts against them. With the Pirates dead last in the majors with an OPS of .615 against right-handed pitchers, the Under 2.5 earned runs for Hendricks seems like a good play.
Of all the Cubs top hitters, Hoerner has the best discipline at the plate, and since he doesn't strike out often, there's a good chance he'll make decent contact against Skenes. Hoerner has picked up a hit in 10 of 12 games this month, and he homered in his lone at-bat against Skenes last week.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pirates vs Cubs odds
Pirates vs Cubs live odds
Pirates vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: Pittsburgh -1.5 (+125) | Chicago +1.5 (-150)
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh -105 | Chicago -115
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Pirates vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- The line has moved to a pick'em after opening with the Cubs as slim home faves. Money has also come in on the Under but not enough to move it off 7.5, although the Under 7.5 is now at -115.
- The Pirates took the first game in this series last night but are just 3-6 in their last nine games overall.
- The Cubs are second in the NL Central with a 25-20 record but have dropped five of their last eight contests.
- The Over is 8-0-1 in the last nine meetings between these NL Central rivals.
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Pirates vs Cubs trend
The Pirates have stayed Under their team total in 25 of their last 34 games (+15.40 units / 40% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Cubs
Pirates vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Friday, 5-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNP, Marquee |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Paul Skenes (0-0, 6.75 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Kyle Hendricks (0-3, 10.04 ERA) |
Pirates vs Cubs latest injuries
Pirates vs Cubs weather
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