Pick 'n' Roll: Wednesday's best NBA bets

Orlando at Washington (+2 ½, 202)

Sure, the Wizards have pulled up their socks lately and finally figured out how to win without Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler. If you’ve been riding this team lately, you’re probably pretty happy with the way Antawn Jamison has put the team on his shoulders, the toughness of Brendan Haywood in the paint, and the maturation of Nick Young. And you’re obviously pleased with their 8-2 ATS record in the last 10 games too. But here’s a caveat: the Magic are even hotter. They’ve covered in five of their last six games and a win over Toronto last night further entrenched their hold on third place in the Eastern Conference. This is a young team that isn’t slowed by playing back-to-backs (10-5 ATS) and they love road games (22-11 ATS), so I wouldn’t worry too much about laying points on the road against a rested team.

Pick: Magic

Seattle at Milwaukee (-9, 208 ½)

Excuse me, but could someone please tell me what the Bucks have done lately to justify a pointspread like this? It couldn’t be a 22-point loss to the 11th-place team in the Eastern Conference in their last game. I doubt it’s the 111 points they’ve been giving up over their last five games against such "offensive powerhouses" as San Antonio (20th ranked offense), Cleveland (17th), and New Jersey (27th).

Really though, its probably got more to do with the fact that they’ve covered the spread in their last five home games, but don't forget they were dogged in every one of those. They haven’t been favored by anywhere close to this much all year – actually, they haven’t been favored much at all, but in games they were, they have a 3-9 ATS record. In spite of all this, it’s still not easy to lay your money down on the Sonics, but would it help if I told you Seattle has covered in its last seven road games and four straight against the Bucks?

Pick: Sonics

New Jersey at Memphis (+3, 201)

There’s not much to like about the Nets, especially since Jason Kidd skipped town, but if there’s one thing the Nets like, it’s an easy target. And there isn’t a team in the NBA that more closely resembles a wounded animal than the Memphis Grizzlies. Even though they’re consistently on the receiving end of double-digit pointspreads, they haven’t covered in nine straight games. Since Memphis parted with Pau Gasol, they are 3-11 ATS and the biggest difference has been on defense. In their last five games, they’re averaging 115.4 points allowed opponents to shoot 54.2 percent from the field. Vince Carter & Co. were almost completely snuffed out by the Spurs defense in their recent home-and-home series, so the Memphis “D” should look like a wide-open country road by comparison.

Pick: Nets

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Posted by Captain408
6 years ago

Hey guys, its a rollercoaster, ups n downs. Just dont give up, if ya need to take a break to regroup, do it. We're a team. Les do this together! GL To ALL! til tmrow!
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Posted by Captain408
6 years ago

finaly got my money back from last night... went 4-0 tonight. Houston +1.5 $300 $300 Arizona vs Orgeon St U134 $200 $200 "C PARLAY (3 TEAMS) [503] INDIANA +13-105 [505] HOUSTON PK-105 [505] TOTAL o181½-105 (HOUSTON vrs DALLAS" $50 $300 Houston O181.5 $300 $300 Thank YOU FOR THE UNDER ON ARizona vs Oregon St UNDER 134! WOOHOO!
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Posted by dayz-65
6 years ago

Rough night fam... Lost on Aussie's UNDER , and my Spurs UNDER.... I'm gonna have to relax for a minute, Basketball is mad funny. garbage I may need to go back and be the book maker!!! 5G's done and done...... Back to ROTH IRA'S and other investments! LOL!!! Take care all!!!
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Posted by NoEgos_08
6 years ago

3-2 last night, why I went against the Rockets still makes no sense to me whatsoever. Hopefully these young 'uns like Peanuts won't be tooting their own horn all day today, let's focus on games and have a good day all the way through guys. Thursday picks: Rockets New Mexico St. Boise St. Considering the Cavs, I like them getting points but they played last night and there is a ton of public action on them so I am a little leary. Michigan State is hard to turn away but that line makes no sense ot me. Any thoughts on Michigan St.? As always any feedback on my picks is welcome. Good luck tonight everyone.
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Posted by crazyNBAnutz
6 years ago

2 bad beats 2nite, DAMM !!! PHO didnt cover. Then had clippers/Sacramento under 199.5 need 2OT to beat it, still 1st OT didnt go OVER that, Iam sooo piss at that, SAC should have finished off those Clips
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Posted by Aussieguy
6 years ago

Yeah thnx abraham. I did my write up as to why I think it'll stay UNDER, in the prohoops forum... This is how I answered one of the questions to someone: Hope it helps Jepprey, I think STRICTLY mathematically speaking many punters will project this score at 194. Therefore I expect the public action to be all over the OVER. In fact the early action, as we speak (or type rather) is majorly on that OVER. So to answer your question, I'd guess that this might hit 195 by game time, unless the books see what I wrote and keep that total low hahahahaaa Lets get this tomorrow AUSSIE
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Posted by pig106
6 years ago

OUCH !!! A ROUGH NITE. MY PLAY ON RAGIN CAJUNS GOT SLAMMED. NOW DOWN TO 15-7 ON 1 A DAYS. I SEE AUSSIE HAD A TOUGH EVENING ALSO. CHIN UP MATE. WE WILL BOUNCE BACK STRONG TOMORROW !!! I AM GOING WITH UCLA -8.5 OVER STANFORD. I THINK BRUINS ARE A WAY BETTER TEAM AND HAVE TOO MUCH SPEED FOR CARDINAL. THEY WON BY 9 EARLIER AT STANFORD WITH BEST PLAYER COLLISON SLOWED BY KNEE INJURY. HE IS NOW HEALTHY AND SHOULD HAVE HUGE GAME AGAINST SLOW FOOTED OPPONENT. BRUINS TO ROLL AND CLINCH PAC 10 TITLE . I AM DOUBLING UP ON THIS ONE. AS ALWAYS BOL TO ALL. THE PIG.
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Posted by abraham282
6 years ago

Spurs/Pacers under 194.5 looks good, especially since it's in San Antonio ..any thoughts? Aussie already gave his pick on his space.....4 Units Cavs/Bulls UNDER 193.5
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Posted by jno2121
6 years ago

I am up. Why? I do not know. I have a math background. The theory is interesting. Is there a way to easily retroactively track it?
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Posted by cec6057
6 years ago

I meant Chicago over 193.5 is my lean. It's late Good luck fellas.
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Posted by cec6057
6 years ago

Palaco, I have to lean to the over 193.5 this time. There were reasons last game but my system is both teams played alot of games and then one comes off back to backs. Bulls and Cavs don't quite fit in that system as niether is even playing 3rd in 4 or 4th in 5 days. I'm not sure what the stats are for over and unders for teams that play revenge games so close together. I can't go off that Spurs and Jersey. I can't figure those Spurs out. They just don't play teams in the first quarter unless its a stronger opponent. They play around with em and turn it on in the second half. I will try to find some info. Chicago under is my lean for now. Thursday's haven't been so good to me. Small plays only for me.
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Posted by cec6057
6 years ago

Thats good stuff Dmon and Palaco! I noticed that under trend a couple of years ago but never thought about watching it consistantly and that overs trend definitly true lately. Speaking of unders and overs. Not sure if Dallas total is out yet but if it's 198.5 like JD01 says i will take the under all day without Nowitzki. Looking at also making a small play on the bulls over 193.5. I think the Bulls pull this one out. No system plays though.
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Posted by MCSEXY81
6 years ago

ALLRIGHT HERE WE GO IVE BEEN CASHING CONSISTANLY MOST EVERY WEEK FOR 5 YEARS NOW. I DO THIS FOR A LIVING. HERES MY PICKS FOR TOMORROW THEY ARE ALREADY SUBMITTED SO WHERE I POST THE LINES IS WHERE I LIKE THEM. UCONN-3- SAN JOSE+15- STANFORD+8- FOLLOW ME ALL WEEK AND U'LL MOST LIKELY CASH
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Posted by palaco
6 years ago

CEC6057 HERES A GAME THAT FITS YOUR SYSTEM.. BULLS /CLEVELAND IT OPEN AT 193.5 LAST TIME IT WAS 195.. SHOULD WE PULL THE TRIGGER FOR THE UNDER... THEY PLAY 3 DAYS AGO...
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Posted by JD01
6 years ago

AUSSIE dallas will stop houston tomorrow. dall -4.5 and over 198.5 how you thing AUSSIE.and ilove to go big
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Posted by Dmon826
6 years ago

just as a side note, i bet you might see a similar trend with overs set around 228-229. you almost never see anything in the 230s (once in a blue moon you'll see a 232), but even if it's capped higher, vegas just won't set it that high. whipping post smartly took advantage of that tonight and hit the over on den/phx, which was set at, you guessed it, 229. i haven't been tracking this formally, but i've noticed that anything around 180 goes under way more often than not, and anything around 229 goes over way more often that not. but you're right- this is something we should keep a very close eye on. i'm pretty sure you're onto something here. and i'm normally not one to believe there's any type of "system" that's a consistent winner (3/6/13 blah blah) given my statistics-oriented background. that said, this might be an exception, since some games obviously should be capped below 180 or over 230 but lines are seldom set there. so most of these lots probably do represent great value. i doubt many people are still up and reading this, so maybe we should bring this up again tomorrow.
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Posted by cec6057
6 years ago

That unders system is definitely something to keep an eye on. One thing I know about totals alot of games can go 150 to 170 total but Vegas just can't set lines that low. When their backs are against the wall they do that 179 and thats about as low as they go. I know it would be far fetched to say this site is causing Vegas line changes but isn't it wierd how Lines jumped on Aussies bets the other day. This is the number one capping site in the country and you must remember it only takes a few big gamblers to load it up and move a line. Why wouldn't a smart guy be looking for information and hot streaks here. Like Las Vegas guy who is on the inside said they monitor and maybe see trends that people are catchin on to and when someone makes a pick and it becomes public favorite they have to adjust the line for all the action it's causin. Thats what I feel happened with the Wolves and Bobcats total. You can not ignore someone like Aussie who is dominating the Nba and giving out free picks with over 3000 views it would break the books if they didnt do something. Vegas will always have their computerized money takers via the slot machines but sports has trends and stats and systems that can make money. It makes you wonder thats for sure. I live hear and all the people I talk to at the 5 books I go to know about covers.com.
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Posted by kherakhera
6 years ago

1-1 tonite, cavs/knick over was a win, but baylor lost at home so just broke even. Looking for some winners, so Aussie looking for your picks. good luck
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Posted by cec6057
6 years ago

Thanks Palaco, You said stick to the system and my first instincs and I did and I won big tonight. I don't get 3 system plays that work out that good. I am going to look at tommorrows games but I might skip tommorrow. Hope you were with me on one of the picks. That Milwaukee game scared the crap out of me. Thanks for believing Palaco! This cappin thing isn't easy and thats why I respect people like Aussie who can do it day in and day out. I hope someone cashed in on the picks. Build up some good karma or something.
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Posted by WhippingPost
6 years ago

Thanks JNO... hope you and everybody wins!
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Posted by solutionchris
6 years ago

i know but he post is pick here
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Posted by palaco
6 years ago

*NBA BOARD
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Posted by solutionchris
6 years ago

JcVegas make some hockey picks today...ouch...
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Posted by palaco
6 years ago

CEC6057 CONGRATS ON UTAH SLAUTER YOU MISS IT BUY 1 POINT .. YOU SAID IT WAS GOIN G.. TO BE A 30 POINTS BLOWOUT AND IT WAS BY 29... I HOPE NOBODY PERSUADE YOU TO GET MINNESOTA.. BECAUSE YOU BEEN CHANGING TEAMS LATELY... CEC6057 OR ANYBODY .. HAVE YOU NOTICE THE LOWEST TOTAL OF THE NBA BOEARD. HAS HAS GONE UNDER.. EXAMPLE TODAY IT WAS THE PISTONS/BOSTON YESTERDAY IT WAS THE SPURS /NETS .. THE DAY BEFORE IT WAS THE CLIPPERS/SIXERS I DID SOME RESEARCH THE LAST TEN DAYS IT HAS A RECORD OF 7 UNDERS 2 OVERS ... MAYBE SOMETHING TO KEEP TRACK OFF...
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Posted by JD01
6 years ago

Aussie , Spelling error. Mean To write beat the book tomorrow!
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Top Response

Posted by thekid37
6 years ago

"the fact that vanderbilt is undefeated at home this season and all the publics money is going on them...it is kinda scary that the line hasnt budged from 4 the entire day..i am starting to worry that i did not fall into a trap with that game"