HBO's 'Hard Knocks' series has produced some crazy NFL betting trends

“Hard Knocks” teams are 26-19 SU and 24-17-3 ATS through the first four weeks of the regular season, boasting a 16-7-2 ATS record as underdogs and are 11-1-1 ATS coming off a loss in that span.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Apr 19, 2017 • 05:14 ET
Photo By - USA Today Images

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be featured in HBO’s NFL reality series “Hard Knocks” this upcoming season.

While being featured on the show, which follows a team through training camp and preseason action, hasn't necessarily been a death sentence for previous franchises, Bucs bettors should be cautious heading into the new season.

The past 11 teams featured on “Hard Knocks” haven’t fared all that well in the regular season, combining to go 86-90 straight up and 83-88-5 against the spread, including a 3-7-1 ATS mark in Week 1 of the schedule (30 percent). They’ve also gone a collective 19-24 SU and 15-24 ATS in the preseason with the HBO cameras rolling.

According to Covers Expert Marc Lawrence, however, “Hard Knocks” teams are 26-19 SU and 24-17-3 ATS through the first four weeks of the regular season, boasting a 16-7-2 ATS record as underdogs and are 11-1-1 ATS coming off a loss in that span.

Last year’s featured team, the Los Angeles Rams, played right into these above betting trends. Los Angeles went 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in the preseason and went just 4-12 SU and 4-11-1 ATS in the regular season. The Rams, in their first year back in Southern California, were blown out by San Francisco in Week 1, losing 28-0 as 2.5-point road favorites in Week 1 but preceded to win and cover in their next three games – all of which as underdogs.

Here’s a look at the past 11 teams featured on HBO’s “Hard Knocks” and their betting records:

2001 Baltimore Ravens: 10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS/ 1-2 SU and ATS preseason
2002 Dallas Cowboys: 5-11 SU, 7-8-1 ATS/ 3-1 SU and ATS preseason
2007 Kansas City Chiefs: 4-12 SU, 7-8-1 ATS/ 0-4 SU and ATS preseason
2008 Dallas Cowboys: 9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS/ 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS preseason
2009 Cincinnati Bengals: 10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS/ 2-2 SU and ATS preseason
2010 New York Jets: 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS/ 2-2 SU and ATS preseason
2012 Miami Dolphins: 7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS/ 0-4 SU and ATS preseason
2013 Cincinnati Bengals: 11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS/3-1 SU and ATS preseason
2014 Atlanta Falcons: 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS/2-2 SU and ATS preseason
2015 Houston Texans: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS/2-2 SU and ATS preseason
2016 Los Angeles Rams: 4-12 SU, 4-11-1 ATS/2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS preseason

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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