If you haven’t already, you’re likely going to spend a respectable amount of time between now and kickoff on Sunday reading about Week 1’s influence on Week 2 from a historical perspective.
For example, what happens when a significant amount of Unders cash in Week 1? Do Overs end up reigning supreme in Week 2?
You get my drift.
For the purposes of this column, our specific historical angle is going to focus on what happens to road teams that notch a victory in Week 1 and then hit the road again in Week 2.
The answer: Over the last five seasons, teams that record a road victory in Week 1 and then play a road game in Week 2 have gone 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in Week 2.
OK, perhaps that isn’t the type of trend that is going to send us sprinting to the counter. So let’s ask another question: in that same scenario, what results do we get in regards to the Over/Under?
The answer: the Over has gone 7-1 in those eight instances.
And if we add another year to our sample size and examine the last six seasons?
The Over has gone 10-1 in those 11 instances.
So, do we have at least one game on the 2017 Week 2 schedule that fits the aforementioned criteria so we can consider making some money?
The answer: Philadelphia at Kansas City, with a total of 47.5 points.
Let’s go to work.
Shameless plug
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With one week in the books
Home teams ATS: 8-6-1
Favorites ATS: 7-7-1
Road favorites ATS: 2-3
Home underdogs ATS: 3-2
Over/Under: 5-10
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Trend of the Week
Since 2000, the Denver Broncos are 18-1 straight up when playing at home in Weeks 1 and 2.
Denver (+2.5) plays host to quarterback Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys Sunday.
Sharps like…
New York Jets: Despite the fact that they mustered a pathetic 12 points and only 214 total yards of offense at Buffalo in Week 1, and combined with the notion that they’re the first NFL team in history to openly tank away a season, the New York Jets are still seeing some sharp support in Las Vegas this week, as this line has already moved from Oakland -14 to Oakland -13.
Fun fact: The last time Oakland closed as a favorite of 14 points or more came all the way back in Week 4 of the 2001 campaign when the Raiders beat the Cowboys 28-21 as 17-point favorites.
Indianapolis Colts: Humiliated to the tune of 46-9 annihilation at Los Angeles against Jared Goff and the Rams last Sunday, the Andrew Luck-less Colts have taken some money at the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas this week. Remember that Pro Bowl running back David Johnson (wrist) is out until at least December and take note of the fact that Arizona has covered the number just three times over their last 11 games.
“Interestingly enough, we’ve been taking sharp money on really lousy teams this week,” Golden Nugget oddsmaker Aaron Kessler told Covers. “Mainly, the sharp action has been in support of the Colts and Jets.”
The public likes…
Seattle Seahawks: In San Francisco’s last six trips to CenturyLink Field, which is a stretch that includes the 2013 NFC Championship game, the 49ers are 0-6 straight-up and losing by an average of 17.6 points per game. Perhaps even worse, the Niners are averaging only 11.8 points per game in those six visits to Seattle. Be advised that San Francisco has covered the number in just four of its last 16 outings, while Seattle is 5-1 ATS over its last six home dates.
“In terms of public wagering, we’ll be taking a lot of Seahawks money this weekend for sure,” said Kessler. “Additionally, Packers-Falcons will be a very well-wagered game with two high-scoring public teams.”
Biggest line move…
Fresh off a 24-21 loss at Denver Monday night, Philip Rivers and the Chargers get set to make their Los Angeles debut Sunday against the temporarily displaced Miami Dolphins, who were forced to put the commencement of their 2017 NFL campaign on hold due to Hurricane Irma.
At some shops, the Chargers opened as 5-point favorites, but that number has since been moving in Miami’s direction to the point where Los Angeles -3.5 looks to be the consensus line, especially offshore.
But that’s not exactly the case at the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas.
“We actually opened Los Angeles -4 and are still there,” said Kessler. “Miami has been seeing the money, but not anything particularly huge at this point in the week.”
The Chargers went 5-16 ATS over their final 21 games played at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, so it should be interesting to see if the franchise can find more success at StubHub Center in Carson.
Biggest sweat…
Arizona is just 2-5 ATS over its last seven road dates while Indianapolis is 27-10 ATS over its last 37 games when coming off a loss. Perhaps those two nuggets have something to do with the rationale behind the smart money that has shown up in support of the Colts this week.
“We’ll see how much sharp money continues to show up in support of Indianapolis, because we certainly aren’t going to write any public action on the Colts,” said Kessler. “So if the sharp money keeps coming in, the Colts will be our biggest sweat of the week.”
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Muffed Punt Picks: Week 2
Last week: 2-1
Denver Broncos (+2.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys: Denver will win this game outright. “Why?”, you ask. Well, since 1990, the Broncos are 28-3 straight-up in Weeks 1 and 2 when playing at home and an astounding 18-1 in Weeks 1 and 2 when playing at home since the year 2000. Credit the Colorado altitude for wrecking havoc on Denver opponents early in the season.
49ers at Seahawks Under 42 total points: San Francisco is averaging just 11.8 points per game over its last six trips to CenturyLink Field. And based upon the struggles this 49ers offensive line endured in Week 1 at home against the Panthers, we see no signs that would indicate a coming-out party for Brian Hoyer and the 49ers offense in Seattle.
Additionally, this Seahawks offensive line is one of the absolute worst in the business, so don’t be shocked in San Francisco’s front seven stymies the Seattle rushing attack while generating consistent pressure on quarterback Russell Wilson.
Eagles at Chiefs Over 47.5 total points: For all the reasons listed above in this column’s opening segment, combined with the fact that the over is 11-2 in Philadelphia’s last 13 road games and 7-2 in Kansas City’s last nine contests played in the month of September.
DFS Value Play of the Week
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals: The 34 year old out of Pittsburgh caught six passes for 74 yards on a healthy 13 targets against the Lions in Detroit last week, but you’ve got to love Fitzgerald in Week 2 based solely on his matchup.
Last Sunday, the Indianapolis defense allowed former bust Jared Goff to complete a staggering 21 of 29 passes for 306 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. If Goff could slice and dice the Colts, think about what Palmer and Fitzgerald should be able to do coming off a loss.
Quote of the Week
“If you must play, decide upon three things at the start: the rules of the game, the stakes, and the quitting time.”
-- Chinese Proverb
