Gimmie five: What's the deal with 5-point spreads?

Eli Manning and the Giants were 5-point dogs versus the Niners.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Oct 11, 2012 • 01:26 ET
Photo By - US PRESSWIRE
The 5-point spread is the red-headed step child of NFL spreads. It's sometimes called a "dead number" and is either cast aside by bettors and bookmakers or is at least shrouded in a bit of mystery for the betting public.

Games land on five less than 3 percent of the time and books will often ignore the number like it's not even there, going directly from 4.5 to 5.5 or vice versa.

“We just skip over it entirely,” Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage, told Covers. “It’s the deadest of the dead. Games rarely fall on five and you often need a safety or something strange to get it.”

It’s plunked between two key football numbers – 3 and 6 – which are far more common final score differentials because they are the value of field goals and touchdowns.

So why do books and bettors bother with the 5-point spread at all?

“A 5-point spread is just two sets of power ratings, factoring in the home-field edge, that land on five. It’s just simple math, really,” says Covers Expert Ted Sevransky, who doesn’t handicap games with spreads of 5 or 5.5 any differently than others. “Certainly, there is some shading around the key numbers, but a spread of five is exactly where the power ratings say it should be."

There are five games on the Week 6 schedule that have or have had a spread of five or 5.5 points since odds opened early Monday morning – Tennessee at Pittsburgh, Detroit at Philadelphia, Buffalo at Arizona, New York at San Francisco, and Green Bay at Houston.

There have been 238 NFL games with opening spreads of five or 5.5 since 1997, with the favorite going just 112-122-4 ATS in those contests – covering just 47 percent of the time.

The betting public isn’t convinced the 5-point spreads were spot on this week, moving three of those five spreads down with action on the underdog. The Lions-Eagles spread is at -4; Bills-Cardinals is dealing -4.5 at most books; Packers-Texans can be had as low as -3.

Thursday’s game between Steelers and Titans has moved to Tennessee +6 with money on the visiting favorite and the Giants-49ers line has moved as high as seven, with numerous injuries to New York’s key players.

“I think you can find little things like (5-point spreads), that generally will raise a few eyebrows. But it’s all just static,” says Sevransky. “If the spread is five and I think it’s too high, I’ll chase the dog. If I think five is too low, I’ll bet the favorite. It’s as simple as that.”

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst; has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike. Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet. He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous NFL Underdogs column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jasons first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns. On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast; WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio; he had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers; flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

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