Spain are the favorites to win the final on Sunday, July 19, according to the live 2026 World Cup odds at Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps.
The 2010 World Cup champions (the nation's only title) hold a 17.7% win probability ahead of today's first World Cup games between Mexico and South Africa (3 p.m. ET), and South Korea and Czechia (10 p.m. ET). The win probability equates to World Cup odds of +465 and would return a profit of $46.50 on a winning $10 wager. The Spaniards will begin their Group Stage play on Monday against Cape Verde (noon ET).
Covers has you taken care of for World Cup picks from today's opening match through next month's final.
⚽ Live World Cup odds & win probability
Here are the live World Cup odds and win probabilities from Kalshi — one of our best World Cup prediction market apps.
The Men's World Cup Winner prediction market at Kalshi has drawn $148 million in trades since if opened in mid-May of last year. France opened as the favorites with a 26.6% win probability but were quickly surpassed by Spain. France briefly returned to favorite status in April, peaking at a 19.8% win probability, but Spain moved back in front early this month.
| Country |  |
Win probability |
|---|---|---|
 Spain |
+465 | 17.7% |
 France |
+525 | 16% |
 Portugal |
+826 | 10.8% |
 England |
+826 | 10.8% |
 Argentina |
+1011 | 9% |
 Brazil |
+1024 | 8.9% |
 Germany |
+1686 | 5.6% |
 Netherlands |
+1900 | 5% |
 Mexico |
+3126 | 3.1% |
 Norway |
+3900 | 2.5% |
 Belgium |
+4248 | 2.3% |
 Colombia |
+4900 | 2% |
 Japan |
+5782 | 1.7% |
 USA |
+5782 | 1.7% |
 Morocco |
+6150 | 1.6% |
 Uruguay |
+8991 | 1.1% |
 Switzerland |
+9900 | 1% |
 Ecuador |
+9900 | 1% |
World Cup odds accurate at the time of publication but subject to change. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0–100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
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📈 World Cup odds movement: Spain vs. France
Here are some highlights of the World Cup odds movement since the market opened last year, and has drawn nearly $150 million in trades:
- May 16, 2025: France opens as the favorites to win the 2026 World Cup, with a 26.6% win probability (+276 World Cup odds)
- May 18, 2025: Spain becomes the World Cup favorites with a 15.6% win probability to France's 14%
- Feb. 10, 2026: Spain peaks at an 18.8% win probability (+432 World Cup odds), their highest chance to win the World Cup since the market opened
- April 23, 2026: France moves back in front as the standalone favorite with a 17.4% win probability (Spain drops to 17.1%)
- June 2, 2026: Spain pulls even with France at a shared 16.7% win probability
- Today: Spain leads all 48 countries in the World Cup with a 17.7% win probability
🏆 World Cup bracket contests and challenges
Think you know how the tournament will unfold? Enter Kalshi's World Cup contest for a chance to compete for a share of $1 million in prizes throughout the 2026 World Cup. All you need to do is correctly pick the winner of the 2026 World Cup.
🌟 World Cup favorites
Here are the World Cup odds favorites entering Day 1 of Group Stage play. The tournament kicks off at 3 p.m. ET with Mexico hosting South Africa:
Spain (17.7%, +465)
Fresh off their Euro 2024 triumph, La Roja are showing no signs of slowing down. Blessed with elite young talent, including Lamine Yamal and Pedri, Spain arguably have the highest floor of any contender heading into the tournament.
Their style of play also translates perfectly to tournament football. Spain are comfortable controlling possession, slowing games down, and forcing opponents to chase for long stretches. If the attack continues to evolve around Yamal, this team has every tool needed to win the World Cup.
France (16%, +525)
Kylian Mbappe is a match-winner on his day, which gives France a leg up on the rest of the competition. They've got an embarrassment of attacking riches, and there’s a real argument that no country in the tournament can match their firepower from front to back.
The biggest concern is at the back, where France can still look vulnerable defensively against organized sides, and the loss of William Saliba will be felt. Even so, nobody will want to face them in a knockout match where one moment from Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, or Michael Olise can completely flip a game on its head.
Portugal (10.8%, +826)
Portugal might be the most difficult team in the tournament to evaluate. On paper, they possess all the ingredients of a legitimate World Cup contender, with Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Vitinha, Rafael Leao, and Cristiano Ronaldo leading one of the deepest squads in the competition.
The challenge has never been talent. Portugal can look like a championship-caliber side when everything clicks, but they have also struggled at times to turn possession into clear-cut chances. The upside is undeniable, however, and if they finally put all the pieces together, they have the quality to emerge as one of the tournament's most dangerous dark horses.
England (10.8%, +826)
If not now, then when? England are still searching for their first World Cup title since 1966, but this current core is running out of opportunities together. Harry Kane remains the focal point, while Jude Bellingham, and Bukayo Saka, give England one of the deepest attacking groups in the field.
The issue is that we’ve seen this story before. England have consistently entered major tournaments with sky-high expectations only to fall short in the biggest moments. The talent is undeniable, but questions surrounding mentality, tactics, and a potentially difficult knockout draw are keeping skepticism alive around their World Cup odds.
Argentina (9%, +1011)
The defending champions are well-equipped to defend their title, even if Lionel Messi takes on a reduced role in 2026. Argentina remain one of the most balanced teams in the tournament, built around a strong defensive structure, elite midfield control, and one of the steadiest goalkeepers in the world in Emiliano Martinez.
Perhaps most importantly, they already know how to win these matches. Tournament experience matters, and very few teams are as comfortable navigating pressure-filled knockout games as Argentina. They may not have the flashiest roster in the field anymore, but writing them off would be a massive mistake.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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