For the United States, the 2026 World Cup is all about defending home soil and proving they belong among the global elite.
Still, their Group D campaign will test them at every turn, pitting host nation ambition against a fascinating mix of continental styles: the tactical brilliance of Türkiye, the defensive steel of Paraguay, and the unwavering spirit of Australia.
We break it all down in our World Cup picks and World Cup odds below.
Group D predictions for today
| Match | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 USAvs.  PAR |
USA ML |
-104 |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
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USA vs Paraguay prediction
9 p.m. ET, FOX
Host nations have won 16 of their 23 opening matches at the World Cup, with only Qatar in 2022 suffering defeat. There’s a different sort of atmosphere that comes from years of anticipation for that opening fixture, and I’m expecting the USMNT to feed off that energy.
Chris Richards stated he can start on Friday after recovering from an ankle injury. He adds a level of skill and experience that the three-man back line needs to be at its best.
His presence allows the Americans to send their dynamic wingbacks forward. Christian Pulisic, Malik Tillman, and Folarin Balogun will create chaos inside the Paraguayan box with their rotations, and the USMNT will find a way through to get their Group D campaign off to a winning start.
Check out Jason Ence's full USA vs. Paraguay predictions!
Group D standings
Read our World Cup standings for a breakdown of all 12 groups.
| TEAM | GP | PTS | GF | GA | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA |
- | - | - | - | - |
| Paraguay |
- | - | - | - | - |
 Australia |
- | - | - | - | - |
 Turkey |
- | - | - | - | - |
More World Cup betting tools
- World Cup picks
- World Cup odds
- Golden Boot odds
- World Cup bracket
- Kalshi's World Cup contest
- World Cup betting sites
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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