Brazil and Norway have two of the best attacking talents in world football, and fans are in for a treat when they face off this afternoon.
Vinicius Junior and Erling Haaland are threats to score at any time, and my Brazil vs. Norway predictions are backing plenty of offensive action, with Haaland presenting real problems for the favorites.
Read on for my World Cup picks for today's clash, with kickoff at 4 p.m. ET on FOX.
Brazil vs Norway predictions
| Pick | Price |
|---|---|
| Who will win pick: Norway to advance | +181 |
| Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 | -137 |
| Goal scorer pick: Erling Haaland | -108 |
Who will win Brazil vs Norway: Norway to advance (+181)
If Japan had a better final product in attack, I’d be writing about their matchup with Norway. Instead, Brazil are seeking a quarter-final spot and are favored at -113 to win in regulation at Kalshi.
Japan completed 21 of 45 long-range line-breaking passes over Brazil’s defense but attempted just five shots, managing only 10 touches in the penalty area. They completed just one of 10 crosses into the box from open play, and were dispossessed or pressured into turnovers in the penalty area on 11 occasions.
Japan’s first-half game plan against Brazil was perfect, sitting in a compact shape and exploiting them on long balls and quick connections down the wings. Inexplicably, they reverted from that game plan after halftime as they looked to protect their lead, and it cost them dearly.
Norway can exploit those same tendencies by simply playing the way they have all tournament. Norway attempted 132 line breaks against the Ivory Coast, including 45 over the top.
But Norway was hitting theirs to Erling Haaland and Alexander Sorloth, a player profile Japan simply lacked. Norway turned those counter-attacks into 26 box touches and 1.90 xG, as the two combined for five of Norway’s nine shots.
Haaland’s lethal finishing saw him register 1.22 xGOT from 1.17 xG, as his goal in the 86th minute—from a cross—gave them the win. He will give Norway the threat Japan lacked, and help carry them to the quarterfinals.
I’m backing the value here to +180.
COVERS INTEL: Vini Jr. leads the World Cup in shot involvements per 90 minutes (5.6), and he ranks third in carries leading to a shot (2.31) among players with at least 180 minutes played. TOp pick
Brazil vs Norway Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (-137)
I mentioned crosses earlier because Haaland and Sorloth both stand 6-foot-4 and present problems for Brazil’s back line.
Sorloth has won 12 of 23 aerial duels in this tournament, while Haaland has claimed 10 of his 14. Brazil’s CB partnership of Gabriel and Marquinhos has claimed 21 of 30 aerial duels, but have not faced anybody of their stature from open play.
Norway will find goals, especially with Casemiro’s struggles in midfield. The injury to CM Lucas Paquetá leaves Brazil more vulnerable to those direct attacks through the center, as Casemiro’s lack of mobility has been exposed at times.
Brazil ranks third-worst in opponent attacking direct speed, as opponents continue to exploit this weakness.
The Brazilian attack is the other side of this coin. The Vinícius Júnior puzzle has been unlocked by Carlo Ancelotti, as he’s scored four goals in the tournament.
His 10 shots on target sit behind only Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé, and his pace is why Brazil is tied with France for the most fast-break opportunities (nine) of any nation.
Norway has allowed the ninth-most touches in the box per 90 minutes (30.75), and Vini Jr’s 35 box touches are bested only by Spain’s Mikel Oyarzabal.
Both teams feature defensive frailties the other can exploit, and with Haaland and Vini Jr both shining at this tournament, I don’t see this one being a boring affair.
This is my top pick, and I would play it to -150.
Brazil vs Norway goal scorer pick: Erling Haaland (-108)
Haaland has been lethal in his World Cup debut, with goals in all three of his appearances. He’s bagged five goals from 3.85 xG and has been accurate with nine of his 14 attempts.
He ranks in the 100th percentile at the tournament per 90 minutes in both xG (1.28) and xGOT (1.41), and is averaging three SOT and 1.33 headed shots per 90 as well.
Haaland has scored nine goals in 14 career matchups against Gabriel and Marquinhos while playing for Manchester City, and his blistering pace and massive frame provide a massive advantage given the mobility concerns of Brazil’s defensive spine.
As long as he can be had at or near even money, this is a no-brainer.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
Brazil vs Norway projected lineup
Brazil (4-3-3): Alisson; Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel, Douglas Santos; Guimarães, Casemiro, Danilo Santos; Rayan, Cunha, Vinícius Jr.
Norway (4-3-3): Nyland; Pedersen, Ajer, Heggem, Wolfe; Berge, Berg, Odegaard; Sorloth, Haaland, Nusa.
Brazil vs Norway injuries
Brazil: RW Raphinha (Out), CM Lucas Paquetá (Out), CM Casemiro (Probable).
Norway: RB Julian Ryerson (Questionable).
Brazil vs Norway weather
It will be cloudy with cooler temperatures this afternoon.
Brazil vs Norway odds
 Brazil |
 Norway |
|
|---|---|---|
| -113 | Moneyline | +376 |
| +285 | Draw | +285 |
| Over 2.5 (-117) | Total | Under 2.5 (+122) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Brazil vs Norway
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey |
| Date | Sunday, July 5, 2026 |
| Time | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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