Phoenix lays 3.5 points at home tonight as they host Connecticut in a quick-turnaround rematch. Friday’s meeting featured non-stop offense, but my Sun vs. Mercury predictions and WNBA picks expect a completely different script for Sunday, July 19.
Look for Alyssa Thomas to guide the Mercury out of their five-game funk by turning this afternoon's clash into a classic defensive rock fight.
- UPDATE: Added Kahleah Copper prop!
Sun vs Mercury prediction
Sun vs Mercury best bet: Under 167.5 (-110)
Friday’s 179-point score was an aberration. These teams combined for just 134 shots, meaning they only cleared the total because they shot way over their heads.
Take away the 25 points the Phoenix Mercury were gifted off turnovers and the Connecticut Sun’s 19 fast-break points, and the half-court offense was completely barren.
The Sun wants to slow this to a crawl. If the Mercury tries to speed it up to counter, they’ll just turn it over more because their offense is broken.
This total was steamed by as many as four points, and that is a massive overreaction.
Play to 164.5.
COVERS INTEL: The Mercury average 14.9 points from turnovers per game, and that is a far cry from the 25 points they scored Friday against the Sun.
Sun vs Mercury same-game parlay
I don’t expect a high-scoring affair tonight, but I do expect Alyssa Thomas and the Mercury to win this game.
The Sun scored a whopping 46 points in the paint on Friday. That’s 10 more points than Phoenix usually allows, and I expect the Mercury to tighten up the defense and beat the Sun.
Thomas scored 17 points on Friday. She’s averaging 14.5 ppg, so we’re getting her floor at a reasonable price for a prop she’s cleared in five of her previous eight games.
Sun vs Mercury SGP
- Under 167.5
- Mercury moneyline
- Alyssa Thomas Over 14.5 points
Sun vs Mercury player prop pick
Kahleah Copper Over 2.5 made threes (+140)
Mercury guard Kahleah Copper is coming off an 0-for-4 stinker from downtown, and the market has overcorrected itself tonight.
Especially when we consider the Sun are one of the worst three-point defenses in the league, allowing a 13th-best 36% from long range this season.
Copper is having an off year from deep, but she’ll jack up as many as 10 per night, and has knocked down a trio of triples in three of her last five games.
Play this to +115.
- Best bet: 9-10, -2.57 units
- SGP: 5-14, +2.80 units
- Player prop: 0-6, -6.0 units
Sun vs Mercury odds
- Spread: Connecticut +3.5 | Phoenix -3.5
- Moneyline: Connecticut +140 | Phoenix -165
- Over/Under: Over 167.5 | Under 167.5
Sun vs Mercury trend
Alyssa Thomas has scored at least 15 points in five of her previous eight games. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Sun vs Mercury
| Location | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Sunday, July 19, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Sun vs Mercury latest injuries
Sun: Aneesah Morrow (Out), Brittney Griner (GTD), Saniya Rivers (GTD), Aaliyah Edwards (GTD).
Mercury: Natasha Mack (Out), Sami Whitcomb (GTD).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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