The Minnesota Lynx return to Target Center on Monday night looking to cap a successful stretch as they host the struggling Connecticut Sun.
Minnesota enters the matchup as a 12.5-point favorite, and the gap between these teams has been even wider than the number suggests.
That's why my Sun vs. Lynx predictions back the Lynx to win comfortably and cover the spread.
Let’s take a closer look at this matchup as I reveal my free WNBA picks for Monday, July 6.
Sun vs Lynx prediction
Sun vs Lynx best bet: Lynx -12.5 (-110)
It doesn’t take much analysis to realize this is a complete mismatch, but the scale of the disparity warrants examination.
The Minnesota Lynx have the best point differential in the WNBA (+10.0), while the Connecticut Sun are dead last at -7.2. The Lynx are the best three-point shooting team at 36.9%, while Connecticut ranks last at 27.2%.
Minnesota’s strengths also lead to blowouts against overmatched teams. The Lynx grab offensive rebounds at a 29.7% rate and generate nine steals per game.
This won’t be a contest, and I’d take the Lynx to cover at anything less than 15 points.
COVERS INTEL: The Sun have the lowest effective field goal percentage in the WNBA at 46.6%, and will find it hard to generate offense against the Lynx, who allow the league’s lowest effective field goal percentage at an identical 46.6%.
Sun vs Lynx same-game parlay
The Lynx are going to run rampant over the Sun, who have allowed eight of their last 10 opponents to score at least 85 points. Connecticut gives up 86.6 ppg, and Minnesota ranks third in the WNBA in offensive rating. The Over is the clear play in this game.
Still, I’m rounding out this SGP by targeting a Sun player. Brittney Griner is still a capable rebounder when she’s on the court, and her play has been better of late, coming off a double-double against the Dallas Wings on Thursday.
Griner has grabbed 8+ rebounds in three of her last four games and is a good bet to get Over her total of 5.5 tonight.
Sun vs Lynx SGP
- Lynx -12.5
- Over 166.5
- Brittney Griner Over 5.5 rebounds
Sun vs Lynx player prop pick
Kayla McBride Over 2.5 threes made (+145)
Veteran Kayla McBride has always been a dangerous threat from beyond the arc. For her career, she has shot 37.2% from three-point range.
She’s taken on a larger role in the Lynx offense while Napheesa Collier is out of the lineup, and will take on even more responsibility with rookie Olivia Miles out tonight.
McBride has been on a shooting binge lately, hitting four or more shots from deep in each of her last three games. She’ll likely get plenty of open looks against a poor Connecticut defense, and I’m backing her to hit her Over at 2.5 made threes.
- Best bet: 11-15, -4.81 units
- SGP: 4-22, +0.55 units
- Player prop: 5-2, +2.33 units
Sun vs Lynx odds
- Spread: Sun +12.5 | Lynx -12.5
- Moneyline: Sun +575 | Lynx -850
- Over/Under: Over 165.5 | Under 165.5
Sun vs Lynx trend
The Lynx are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Sun. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Sun vs Lynx
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Monday, July 6, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Boston, Victory+ |
Sun vs Lynx latest injuries
Sun: Aneesah Morrow (Out).
Lynx: Olivia Miles (Out), Napheesa Collier (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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