The Los Angeles Sparks were dealt a major blow this week with the announcement that the WNBA’s leading scorer, Kelsey Plum, is week-to-week with an ankle sprain, and her absence has major ramifications for tonight’s matchup with the slightly favored Washington Mystics.
With Plum sidelined, a major opportunity is available for Ariel Atkins to step up on offense, which is why my Sparks vs. Mystics predictions call for Atkins to hit the Over on her modest scoring prop in a low-scoring road loss.
Read on in my WNBA picks for a full breakdown of Atkins’ boost in buckets and a +800 SGP.
Sparks vs Mystics prediction
Sparks vs Mystics best bet: Ariel Atkins Over 12.5 points (-120)
It’s all hands on deck for the Los Angeles Sparks to make up for Kelsey Plum’s lost production. Dearica Hamby and Nneka Ogwumike should see bumps, but their respective scoring lines of 19.5 and 16.5 are a tad high for my liking.
Instead, I’ll take Atkins at just 12.5. She’s scored 11 in consecutive games, and Plum’s absence should lead to at least one more bucket.
The Washington Mystics' interior of Shakira Austin and Kiki Iriafen has held opponents to the fewest points in the paint, but they’ve surrendered 35.5% shooting from deep, which is great news for Atkins, a career 35% shooter from distance.
COVERS INTEL: At 6.8 per game, Kelsey Plum has accounted for nearly 27% of her team’s three-point attempts, leaving a major void that can be filled by Atkins, who ranks second on the Sparks with 4.8 3PA per game.
Sparks vs Mystics same-game parlay
The Sparks have relied on their offense to stay in games, as LA ranks second in scoring (91.5 ppg) and dead last in opponent scoring (96 ppg). No Plum and an abysmal defense put LA at a major disadvantage. I’ll bet the line up to 4.5.
The point total opened as high as 170.5, but I’m still happy to bet it down to 164.5. The Mystics rank last in pace, and they’ll limit shot opportunities for an offense that will likely be sputtering, playing its third straight road game, and operating without its top scorer.
Sparks vs Mystics SGP
- Ariel Atkins Over 12.5 points
- Mystics -2.5
- Under 164.5
- Best bet: 5-2, +2.81 units
- SGP: 2-5, +6.70 units
Sparks vs Mystics odds
- Spread: Sparks +2.5 | Mystics -2.5
- Moneyline: Sparks +115 | Mystics -135
- Over/Under: Over 164.5 | Under 164.5
Sparks vs Mystics trend
The Mystics are 4-2 ATS this season, including 1-0 at home. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Sparks vs Mystics
| Location | CareFirst Arena, Washington, DC |
| Date | Friday, May 29, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Ion |
Sparks vs Mystics latest injuries
Sparks: Kelsey Plum (Out).
Mystics: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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