Two teams eager to break three-game losing streaks will face off tonight when the New York Liberty host the Phoenix Mercury as 4.5-point faves.
New York’s sputtering offense has dropped the level of scoring in its games lately, so I’ll be taking the Under in my Mercury vs. Liberty predictions.
Check out the full analysis below to get my free WNBA picks for Wednesday, May 27.
Mercury vs Liberty prediction
Mercury vs Liberty best bet: Under 169 (-110)
The return of Satou Sabally was supposed to spark the New York Liberty. Instead, it has ground their offense to a halt. In the three games since Sabally has joined the team, the Liberty are 0-3, shooting 40.3% from the field during those contests.
New York has also hit the Under in each of those games. The Phoenix Mercury are also in the bottom half of the league in field-goal percentage at 43.5%, and they'll be slowed down by the Liberty, who rank 12th in the WNBA in pace.
As long as this total doesn’t drop below 167, I’m backing the Under.
COVERS INTEL: The Liberty have a paltry offensive rating of 95.2 over their last three games, the second-worst output in the WNBA over that span. 
Mercury vs Liberty same-game parlay
The Liberty have legitimate issues to sort through right now, but this is still the championship favorite in the WNBA this season.
New York's struggles have mainly come on the defensive side of the ball, but it's not like Phoenix's 32.3% 3-point shooting (11th in the W) is going to shoot the home side out of the gym.
To get that victory, the Liberty will lean on Breanna Stewart. The 31-year-old forward is averaging 21.3 ppg on the season, and is a true three-level scorer.
With Ionescu out again and Satou Sabally questionable, Stewy will get her points against a Phoenix team allowing 87.0 ppg this season.
Mercury vs Liberty SGP
- Under 169
- Liberty moneyline
- Breanna Stewart Over 19.5 points
Mercury vs Liberty first basket scorer: Breanna Stewart (+500)
Stewart leads the Liberty in usage at 29.4% this season. That’s remained true even with Sabally and Ionescu back in the lineup, as they’ve taken shots from role players rather than impacting how much the ball ends up in Stewart’s hands.
As a result, it only makes sense Stewart has been the most successful first basket bet on the Liberty so far this season, getting the opening bucket twice in their first seven games. Given her versatility, Stewart will always be a reasonable bet on this market, and at +500, she’s offering a surprising amount of value tonight.
- Best bet: 4-4, -0.52 units
- SGP: 1-7, +1.50 units
- First basket: 0-8, -8 units
Mercury vs Liberty odds
- Spread: Mercury +4.5 | Liberty -4.5
- Moneyline: Mercury +160 | Liberty -190
- Over/Under: Over 169 | Under 169
Mercury vs Liberty trend
The Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings between Phoenix and New York. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Mercury vs Liberty
| Location | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date | Wednesday, May 27, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | USA Network |
Mercury vs Liberty latest injuries
Mercury: Sami Whitcomb G (Out).
Liberty: Sabrina Ionesu G (Out), Satou Sabally F (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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