Connecticut Sun vs Los Angeles Sparks Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Connecticut Has LA's Number

The East-leading Connecticut Sun head West on Sunday for a matchup against the Los Angeles Sparks.

While both teams are still figuring things out after major offseason changes, the Sun’s physical interior play has them cruising through the early-season schedule. The Sparks will need big games from Nneka and Chiney Ogwumike as well as Dearica Hamby to hold off the Sun from dominating them in the paint.

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Sun vs. Sparks believe Connecticut will prove too much for this banged-up Sparks team.

Sun vs Sparks best odds

Sun vs Sparks picks and predictions

It’s always intriguing to watch a head coach square off against their former team, as is the case Sunday with Curt Miller leading the Los Angeles Sparks against the Connecticut Sun. Miller deserves a ton of credit for maximizing the Sun roster, and new head coach Stephanie White hasn't been forced to make any dramatic changes to their style of play. 

Even though they lost Jonquel Jones, the Sun haven’t missed a beat. They don’t shoot many threes, instead, they win through an incredible interior offense led by Alyssa Thomas and Brionna Jones. Thomas is one of the toughest players in the WNBA, as well as one of the most skilled playmakers at her position. 

Jones, meanwhile, plays a simple game but an effective one. She eats up space inside, gets every garbage bucket and tip in, plays with force, and works hard as a rim runner in transition. If she seals her opponent near the basket, it’s over, because she has soft hands that allow her to catch and finish even wayward passes with ease.

Dearica Hamby and Jones might be the same height at 6-foot-3 but Jones has more than 20 pounds on Hamby. She’ll struggle to keep Jones from sealing and floating her shots in off the glass.

The Sun turn the math in their favor by getting to the line a lot and feasting on the offensive glass, but DeWanna Bonner is also a fantastic perimeter player. She slithers around screens for open triples and should prove difficult to cover for the Spark’s depleted backcourt.

The Sparks have been decimated by injury, making it hard for them to find a consistently high level of play. It has also opened the doors for certain players like Jordin Canada, who has been having a breakout season, but who had to play all 40 minutes in the Sparks' previous against the Lynx.

That’s not sustainable and is indicative of how thin the Sparks are right now. With both Nia Clouden and Lexie Brown downgraded to out for Sunday’s game, the burden on Canada’s shoulders isn’t getting any lighter.

But most troubling for the Sparks has been their inconsistency. They have some good wins but also some truly terrible losses on their early-season resume, so it’s hard to get a feel for how good this team is. Miller has injected a sense of grit and toughness, but injuries have derailed a full actualization of what this team might be.

The Sun, by contrast, are a well-oiled machine, know exactly how they want to play, and can rely on their core group to produce every night.

Homecourt advantage is worth around two points in the 40-minute WNBA game, so with the Sparks at -3, oddsmakers are suggesting (all things being equal) the Sun are five points better than L.A. That might be true of a fully realized Sparks squad, but L.A. is far too banged up and inconsistent to bet against this bruising Connecticut team.

My best bet: Sun -3 (-110 at DraftKings)

Sun vs Sparks spread and Over/Under analysis

Admittedly, the Sun’s performance against the spread of late has not been inspiring. They’re just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games overall, but that stretch featured games against the Aces, Liberty, and Mystics. That Connecticut is the only team to beat the Aces (and beat them handily) indicates more to me about the overall quality of this team than that trend does.

While a lot of the supporting cast has changed on both sides, the top-end talent — the Ogwumike sisters, Bonner, and Thomas — gives these teams a relatively high sense of continuity. It’s significant then that the Sun have dominated the Sparks in recent years, going 11-1 against the spread in their last 12 meetings.

The total for Sunday’s game opened at 160, which seems about right to me. These two teams are in the middle of the pack in terms of pace, as well as offensive rating. They go about it fairly differently, though. 

The Sun get fewer points from 3-pointers as a percentage of their overall offense than any WNBA team, instead working their way to an above-average offense from 2-point range and from the foul line.

Despite being led by the trio of Thomas, Jones, and Bonner, the Sun are an incredibly balanced scoring team. They’ve already had six different leading scorers just a quarter into the season. That gives their offense a high floor, particularly against a smaller Sparks team, but also less volatility overall. Oddsmakers have underestimated the Sun offense recently, as the Over has cashed in four straight games overall.

If this line goes wildly Over or Under, it will likely be due to fluctuations on the L.A. side of things. They emphasize the 3-point shot a lot more than Connecticut, which leads to a higher variance, even more so when they’re relying on fewer healthy players. Role players shoot better at home, and so it should not surprise that the Over is 6-2 in their last eight games in L.A.

Sun vs Sparks betting trend to know

The Sun are 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Sparks.

Sun vs Sparks game info

Sun vs Sparks key injuries

Sun: Natisha Hiedeman G (Probable).
Sparks: Nia Clouden G (Out), Lexie Brown G (Out), Layshia Clarendon G (Out), Katie Lou Samuelson F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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