The WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Final has already lost some of its luster with the absence of Las Vegas Aces’ superstar A’ja Wilson, but her absence can create betting value, both on Las Vegas players and on New York Liberty stars.
These Liberty vs. Aces props and WNBA picks look for the value presented by that injury on Tuesday, June 30.
Best Aces vs Liberty player prop bets for today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Jackie Young |
Over 19.5 points | +102 |
| NaLyssa Smith |
Over 7.5 rebounds | +102 |
 Jonquel Jones |
Over 14.5 points | -120 |
Jackie Young Over 19.5 points
A’ja Wilson has a lofty 32.8% usage rate this season. The next highest rate in the Las Vegas Aces’ genuine rotation is Jackie Young’s 23.1%.
But Young is a defensive liability. So if she is going to use the ball that often, and even more tonight in Wilson’s absence, she needs to produce.
Which she has been doing lately, clearing this prop in four of her last five games despite Wilson’s presence in those games, and that sole letdown came by only the hook.
NaLyssa Smith Over 7.5 rebounds
Wilson also leads the Aces in rebounding, snagging 17.1% of available boards when she is on the court. That is vital for a Las Vegas team relatively short of quality rebounders, with only NaLyssa Smith remaining in the genuine rotation above a 10% rebounding rate.
Her 15.5% rate should be encouraging, and in Wilson’s absence, it should climb. Smith is already averaging seven rebounds per game this season. She is quite capable of finding 10 boards tonight.
That may not be likely, but tracking down the ball at least eight times should be. Frankly, this being priced at plus-money is outright foolish.
Jonquel Jones Over 14.5 points
Jonquel Jones should dictate the terms in the paint tonight. Without Wilson’s defense, Las Vegas is without its anchor on both ends of the court.
Her 6-foot-6 frame stands two inches taller than Smith’s, and Jones has six more years of experience than Smith does, all of it in a more prominent role.
Furthermore, Jones has cleared this prop in three of her last four games, falling short by the hook in a blowout win at Las Vegas a week ago. Reach further back, and she has scored at least 16 points in eight of her last 12 games. Jones has become one of the New York Liberty’s needed offensive options, and it would not be terribly astounding if she scored 20 points in this Cup final.
Where to bet on WNBA player props
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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