Bobby Green vs. Nasrat Haqparast is on the main card for UFC 271 betting on February 12.
This will be an interesting fight between a crafty veteran and a young fighter trying to regain momentum. Oddsmakers are expecting a close fight with UFC odds hitting the board with "King" Green as a slim -149 favorite while Haqparast comes back at +120.
Here are our best free Green vs. Haqparast picks and predictions for UFC 271 on Saturday, February 12 from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.
Green vs Haqparast fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Green vs Haqparast method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Bobby Green | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +340 | +500 |
| To win by Points | +190 | +240 |
| To win by Submission | +1,200 | +2,200 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of February 11, 2022.
Green vs Haqparast picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Green vs Haqparast betting preview
Bobby "King" Green is fresh off a first-round knockout victory against Al Iaquinta last November that earned him a Performance of the Night bonus. That victory allowed Green to bounce back from back-to-back losses although he's still a middling 5-5-1 since 2017.
The 35-year-old is an experienced veteran who competed in King of the Cage and Strikeforce before making his UFC debut in 2013. Green is a well-rounded fighter who combines strong wrestling with accurate striking and constant pressure for 15 minutes.
Nasrat Haqparast is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Dan Hooker in September. Haqparast was outclassed in every area of that bout but still boasts an impressive 5-2 record in his last seven appearances in the octagon.
Haqparast is 26 years old and entered the UFC in 2017 as one of the top lightweight prospects after eight straight finishes (including six in the first round) across various German promotions. He has crisp boxing fundamentals and uses effective high guard defense and high-volume striking to overwhelm his opponents.
Green vs Haqparast tale of the tape
| Bobby Green | Nasrat Haqparast | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Age | 26 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| 155 lbs | Weight | 154 lbs |
| 71 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 28-12-1 (9 KOs) | Record | 13-4-0 (9 KOs) |
Green vs Haqparast UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Green (-149)
This is a tight line for good reason, but despite Haqparast entering the UFC with plenty of hype, he has never really lived up to it.
All five of his victories in the promotion have been against marginal fighters, and while he was dealing with the tragic passing of his mother in his most recent fight, Hooker still looked levels above him.
Green has always been an effective gatekeeper in the division and despite being 35 years old with 41 fights as a pro, he is still very active and durable. He has gone 4-2 in the last year and a half and both defeats (against Rafael Fiziev and Thiago Moises) were close and he had a massive edge in significant strikes.
Both of these guys will be throwing with plenty of volume in this one but Green has more weapons and experience, so we'll lean ever so slightly in his direction.
Best bet: Fight to go the distance (-166)
While we're leaning towards Green to win the fight, it's always tough backing a guy who doesn't usually get finishes and who touches guys without actually seeming to hurt them. Haqparast will be likely throwing with more heat, and with his strike defense, things could be interesting if and when it gets to the judges' cards.
That's why we'll avoid backing either fighter and instead bet on this fight to go the distance.
Green's last win came by knockout but his previous 10 fights all went the distance. Meanwhile, Haqparast's last three bouts and six of his eight career UFC fights went the full 15 minutes. Being able to bet this fight to go the distance at better than -180 is nice value regardless of who comes out on top.
