Derrick Lewis faces off against Tallison Teixeira in the headline event for UFC Fight Night betting tonight.
Lewis is a former heavyweight title challenger, but he's now being used as a gatekeeper and is a +260 underdog in the latest UFC odds.
See why I'm betting on "The Black Beast" with my best free UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira predictions for Saturday, July 12.
Lewis vs Teixeira prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Lewis moneyline (+260 at BET99)
- My best bet: Lewis by KO, TKO, or DQ (+300 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Tallison Teixeira is a perfect 8-0 entering tonight, with all of his wins coming inside the first round. He made his UFC debut earlier this year and knocked out Justin Tafa with an elbow in the clinch just 35 seconds into their fight.
That said, this is a massive step up in competition for Teixeira, who is just 25 years old and has just one bout at this level. Lewis is 40 and past his prime, but still has death-touch power and is coming off a win against Rodrigo Nascimento, where he racked up his UFC-record 15th knockout.
A talented striker, Teixeira throws dangerous kicks and straight punches at the end of his massive reach. However, his pressure could make him susceptible to Lewis' powerful counters.
When Teixeira faced Arthur Lopes on Contender Series last fall, he allowed the significantly smaller Lopes to get into the pocket and ate multiple power shots. He was able to tank those punches, but his chin has never been tested by somebody who hits as hard as Lewis.
Teixeira has also never gone past the first round, so his cardio is a bit of an unknown. Lewis carries his power into the later rounds, and if he can survive the early pressure from Teixeira, he could catch him with something big later.
Best bet analysis
Dana White and the UFC brass are eager to inject some young blood into the heavyweight division, but this might be too soon for Teixeira, who is fresh off his promotional debut.
Lewis is 5-5 in his last 10 bouts, but those defeats came against guys ranked in the Top 10. Three of those victories also came as an underdog, knocking out Marcos Rogério de Lima, Chris Daukaus, and Curtis Blaydes.
Teixeira is untested, and he can be hittable with his tall, upright stance. He has a background in BJJ but prefers to keep things standing up, which could get him in trouble in this matchup.
The value in taking Lewis on the moneyline comes from finishing upside, with his last five wins coming by knockout. If you're backing him to beat the more skilled Teixeira, it makes sense to take the KO/TKO prop at an even better payout.
Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Lewis | Teixeira |
| To win outright | +260 | -330 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +300 | -190 |
| To win by decision | +2000 | +900 |
| To win by submission | +3300 | +900 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 7-12.
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Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira tale of the tape
| Lewis | Teixeira | |
|---|---|---|
| 40 | Age | 25 |
| 6-foot-3 | Height | 6-foot-7 |
| Heavyweight | Weight Class | Heavyweight |
| 79 inches | Reach | 83 inches |
| 28-12 | Record | 8-0 |
| 23 | Wins by KO | 7 |
| 1 | Wins by submission | 1 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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