Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson Predictions, Picks & Odds

Former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo meets contender Montel Jackson at the crossroads in the co-main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night.

Jackson is a -320 favorite while Figueiredo is a +240 underdog. Here are my UFC Fight Night: Jackson vs. Figueiredo free betting picks from Rio de Janeiro.

Figueiredo vs Jackson prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Jackson moneyline (-320 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-210 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Things aren’t looking great for Deiveson Figueiredo as he heads into a fight that could determine the rest of his career.

The former flyweight champion spent years brutalizing his body to make 125 pounds, and while his initial move to bantamweight showed promise, back-to-back losses and recent knee surgery have cast serious doubt on what he has left. A third consecutive defeat could spell the end of his days as a contender.

Montel Jackson is on a six-fight winning streak and is looking to add a former champion to his resume. He’s a well-rounded fighter with legitimate finishing power and a strong wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu base. If he can’t put you away with his hands, he’s more than capable of grinding you down on the mat.

Statistically, he’s efficient and defensively sound, landing 3.22 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 1.39. His 62% takedown accuracy and 3.24 takedowns per fight illustrate just how complete his game has become. Add in a five-inch height and seven-inch reach advantage, and Jackson enters this matchup with a major physical edge.

For Figueiredo, the question is how much of his old explosiveness remains. Losses to Petr Yan and Cory Sandhagen are nothing to be ashamed of, but they highlighted that his speed and reaction time have slipped. He’s absorbing more than he lands, 2.82 to 3.64 significant strikes per minute, and while his ground game remains dangerous, his diminished mobility and size disadvantage at bantamweight are real concerns. He’s turning 38 this year and is also coming off knee surgery from an injury he suffered in the Sandhagen fight just five months ago.

Figueiredo’s championship pedigree and toughness can’t be ignored, but those qualities won’t offset the physical and stylistic advantages Jackson brings. Jackson hits hard for the weight class and is the naturally bigger fighter, not to mention that he’s closer to his prime, as Figuieredo is closer to the door. Unless the Brazilian can turn back the clock, Jackson should control the tempo and pace en route to a clear victory.

Best bet analysis
Figueiredo is taking a step back in competition compared to Sandhagen and Yan, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him more competitive against an opponent who hasn’t dabbled at this level of competition quite yet.

He could keep things interesting and expose holes in Jackson’s game, and he remains tough enough that he can make things interesting and stay on his feet. My best bet is on Figueiredo’s toughness and Jackson’s lack of experience taking this fight Over 2.5 rounds.

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson odds

Method of Victory	Figueiredo	Jackson
To win outright	+260	-350
To win by KO/TKO	+975	+260
To win by decision	+475	+105
To win by submission	+1450	+950
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 10-11.

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Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson tale of the tape

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