"Rude Boy" Randy Brown faces off against Gabriel Bonfim in the main event for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.
Bonfim is the No. 14-ranked welterweight contender, and UFC odds have him installed as a -160 favorite with the veteran Brown coming back at +135.
Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown predictions and picks for November 8 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
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Bonfim vs Brown prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Brown moneyline (+135 at BET99)
- My best bet: Brown moneyline (+135 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Brown is 8-2 in his last 10 trips to the octagon, with his only losses during that span coming against current champ Jack Della Maddalena and a split decision versus the talented Bryan Battle. In his most recent bout, he knocked out Nicolas Dalby in the second round to earn a Fight of the Night bonus.
Bonfim is the former LFA welterweight champ, and he won his first three fights in the UFC by way of first-round submission. His meteoric rise came to a crashing halt when he was knocked out by Dalby two years ago.
He has since won three in a row, most recently beating Stephen Thompson by split decision in July. The 29-year-old has high-end BJJ, but his wrestling isn't good enough to get the fight where he wants it.
Brown is no slouch on the mat himself, and he's a significantly better striker with a 5.5-inch reach advantage. We've seen Bonfim fold when dealing with adversity, and the more experienced Brown won't make this easy for him.
This fight should likely be lined close to a pick'em, which has me backing the underdog at plus money.
Best bet analysis
Bonfim was a -500 fave when a 38-year-old Dalby knocked him out, and it wasn't like he was caught by a lucky strike with Dalby simply beating him up in the second round.
Bonfim was a -400 favorite against Ange Loosa last year and couldn't get the finish, and he was also -400 against Wonderboy and barely edged the decision. At this point, it's clear that sportsbooks are overvaluing the Brazilian.
Meanwhile, Brown is an underrated and well-rounded veteran, making him the value side at +135.
Gabriel Bonfim vs Randy Brown odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Bonfim | Brown |
| To win outright | -160 | +135 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +405 | +365 |
| To win by decision | +500 | +390 |
| To win by submission | +195 | +1650 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 11-08.
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Gabriel Bonfim vs Randy Brown tale of the tape
| Bonfim | Brown | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Age | 35 |
| 6-foot-1 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| Welterweight | Weight Class | Welterweight |
| 72 inches | Reach | 78 inches |
| 18-1 | Record | 20-6 |
| 3 | Wins by KO | 8 |
| 13 | Wins by submission | 5 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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