Our Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja predictions headline our free picks for UFC 331 this Saturday at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, Calif.
Their first meeting ended just 26 seconds into Round 1 when Pantoja suffered an elbow injury, leaving plenty unresolved between the former champion and Van.
Now, after successfully defending the belt against Tatsuro Taira, Van gets the chance to remove any doubt against the man who previously ruled the flyweight division.
Check out the latest UFC odds for Saturday’s flyweight championship rematch below, along with my top picks for September 19.
Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja predictions for UFC 331
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Van | 59% |
| Top pick: Fight will go the distance | 42% |
| Prop: Van by decision | 22% |
| Combo | 3.33x |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja: Van (59% Probability)
Van’s initial title win over Pantoja may have been anticlimactic, but his subsequent performance against Tatsuro Taira showed why the 24-year-old belongs at the top of the division. Van defended takedowns well, remained composed when Taira did get him down, and steadily took control with his striking.
Pantoja remains an elite grappler, but Van’s defensive wrestling, physicality, and cleaner stand-up give him more ways to win this rematch. Van is my pick.
Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja top pick: Fight will go the distance (42% Probability)
The fight going the distance is my top pick.
Van is efficient and dangerous, but Pantoja has been remarkably durable throughout his career and is unlikely to disappear simply because Van is the younger, more athletic fighter. The Taira fight also showed that Van can remain patient and win extended stretches rather than forcing a finish.
Pantoja’s grappling and championship experience should keep Van honest, resulting in a competitive fight that reaches the scorecards.
COVERS INTEL: Pantoja’s injury loss to Van was the first stoppage defeat of his 36-fight professional career, underscoring just how difficult he has historically been to put away.Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja prop: Van by decision (22% Probability)
Van has the goods, but the market may be getting slightly ahead of itself if it expects him to overwhelm Pantoja.
Before their first meeting, Pantoja had won eight straight fights and successfully defended the flyweight title four times, establishing himself as the division’s clear No. 1 fighter. He has also never suffered a legitimate knockout or submission loss.
I expect Van to neutralize much of Pantoja’s grappling and win the cleaner exchanges, but he’ll need to fight intelligently for all five rounds. Van by decision is my preferred prop.
Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja combo
Pantoja remains an elite grappler with exceptional durability, so Van should have little incentive to recklessly pursue a finish. Instead, I expect Van to use his takedown defense, physicality, and cleaner striking to separate himself over five rounds and earn the decision gradually.
Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Joshua Van | Alexandre Pantoja |
| To win outright | 59% | 46% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 37% | 11% |
| To win by decision | 22% | 19% |
| To win by submission | 5% | 29% |
| Total rounds | Over 2.5 40% |
Under 2.5 65% |
Odds as of 9-17.
Van is the market favorite, with his 37% KO/TKO probability representing his most likely method of victory, while Pantoja’s 29% submission probability clearly identifies the former champion’s best path to reclaiming the belt.
I’m expecting something more measured than either outcome. Pantoja’s durability should make him difficult to finish, while Van’s improved defensive grappling can limit Pantoja’s submission opportunities.
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Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja tale of the tape
| Joshua Van | Alexandre Pantoja | |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Age | 36 |
| 5-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-5 |
| Flyweight | Weight Class | Flyweight |
| 65 inches | Reach | 68 inches |
| 17-2 | Record | 30-6 |
| 9 | Wins by KO | 8 |
| 2 | Wins by submission | 12 |
Van and Pantoja are identical in height, but the former champion owns a three-inch reach advantage and considerably more experience, particularly in championship fights.
The biggest difference is age, with the 24-year-old Van facing a 36-year-old Pantoja. Van has the greater striking upside, while Pantoja’s 12 submission victories highlight where he remains most dangerous. Van’s youth, physicality, and improving defensive grappling should help neutralize that threat over five rounds.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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