Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy predictions are in the spotlight as the lightweight contenders meet in the co-main event of UFC 331 this Saturday at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.
Tsarukyan enters as a commanding favorite, but Ruffy's dangerous striking makes this an intriguing matchup.
Check out the latest UFC odds and free picks for Saturday's showdown.
Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy predictions for UFC 331
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Tsarukyan | 72% |
| Top pick: Fight will go the distance | 31% |
| Prop: Tsarukyan by decision | 43% |
| Combo | 3.3x |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy: Tsarukyan (72% Probability)
Tsarukyan's elite wrestling should ultimately be enough to defuse Ruffy, but I don't expect it to come easily. Benoit Saint Denis exposed Ruffy's ground game, but Ruffy responded by training with Alexander Volkanovski, and the results since have been encouraging.
Tsarukyan is the more complete fighter, but he won't be the better striker. He'll need to consistently test Ruffy's improved takedown defense and grappling to separate himself. I'll cautiously take Tsarukyan.
Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy top pick: Fight will go the distance (31% Probability)
The fight going the distance is my top pick. Tsarukyan grounding and submitting Ruffy seems to be the popular fight script, but I expect a much more competitive matchup. Ruffy remains the superior striker, while Tsarukyan possesses the deeper overall toolkit. Ruffy hasn't suddenly cured his grappling weaknesses, but he also won't be the same easy target Saint Denis exploited.
Tsarukyan may have to repeatedly win difficult exchanges and takedowns rather than finding an easy submission, sending this fight to the judges.
COVERS INTEL: In his two wins since losing to Benoit Saint Denis, Ruffy has defended all three takedown attempts against him while surrendering just 58 seconds of combined control time.Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy prop: Tsarukyan by decision (43% Probability)
As dangerous as Ruffy is on his feet, and despite the work he's put into improving his ground game, Tsarukyan is still the better overall fighter. He's heavy-handed, physically strong, difficult to shake off, and a proven finisher. But he won't recklessly engage Ruffy in a firefight.
I expect Tsarukyan to grind on him, sap his explosiveness, and prioritize winning exchanges and rounds rather than chasing a stoppage. Because of that, I'm taking Tsarukyan by decision.
Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy combo
Ruffy's striking is dangerous enough that Tsarukyan shouldn't take unnecessary chances, but his wrestling, physical strength, and deeper toolkit give him several ways to control the fight.
I expect Tsarukyan to repeatedly force Ruffy to defend takedowns, wear on him in the clinch, and prioritize winning rounds rather than chasing a finish.
Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Arman Tsarukyan | Mauricio Ruffy |
| To win outright | 72% | 28% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 48% | 27% |
| To win by decision | 43% | 12% |
| To win by submission | 38% | 8% |
| Fight goes the distance | Yes 31% |
No 83% |
Odds as of 9-17.
Tsarukyan is a commanding 72% favorite, but the method-of-victory markets show considerably less certainty about how he gets the job done. His KO/TKO, decision, and submission probabilities all carry meaningful support, reflecting the variety of ways his deeper skill set can trouble Ruffy.
I'm going against the market's preference for a finish, however. With Ruffy improving his defensive grappling and remaining dangerous on the feet, Tsarukyan may prioritize control and winning rounds rather than take unnecessary risks chasing a stoppage.
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Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy tale of the tape
| Arman Tsarukyan | Mauricio Ruffy | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Age | 30 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| Lightweight | Weight Class | Lightweight |
| 72.5 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 23-3 | Record | 14-2 |
| 9 | Wins by KO | 13 |
| 6 | Wins by submission | 0 |
Ruffy owns significant physical advantages, standing four inches taller with 2.5 inches of additional reach, and his 13 knockouts in 14 victories illustrate how dangerous those dimensions make him on the feet. Tsarukyan, however, has the considerably more diverse offensive résumé, with nine knockouts and six submissions. That contrast reinforces the matchup: Ruffy wants space to strike, while Tsarukyan should look to erase those physical advantages by closing the distance and wrestling.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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