The main card of UFC 331 in Los Angeles opens with a light heavyweight bout between Alonzo Menifield and Iwo Baraniewski, and my Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski predictions side with Baraniewski as the 69% favorite.
Check out the latest UFC odds and my free picks for UFC 331 on Saturday, Sept. 19.
Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski predictions for UFC 331
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Baraniewski | 69% |
| Top pick: Baraniewski by KO/TKO/DQ | 60% |
| Prop: Fight ends before Round 2 | 52% |
| Combo | 2.00x |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski: Baraniewski (69% Probability)
This is a classic matchup between a young up-and-comer and an experienced vet.
Iwo Baraniewski is 27 years old with a perfect 9-0 record, including three straight first-round KOs in the UFC. Alonzo Menifield is 38 and has been fighting in the promotion since 2019 with an 11-6-1 record.
While Menifield still has some game, as evidenced by recent underdog wins against Zhang Mingyang and Oumar Sy, he simply won’t have the speed to keep up with Baraniewski.
The Polish fighter is younger, faster, and more resilient than Menifield, who has been knocked out three times in the past two and a half years.
Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski top pick: Baraniewski by KO/TKO/DQ (60% Probability)
Baraniewski is a hyper-aggressive striker who hunts down his prey, and Menifield is not one to shy away from a fight.
We saw Menifield take a ton of big shots from Zhang in his last tilt before finding a knockout finish of his own, but Baraniewski’s power is on another level.
Baraniewski has never seen the second round in his nine professional fights, finishing each of his last seven via knockout. If Menifield is willing to stand and trade in the pocket again, he’ll quickly feel Baraniewski’s knockout power.
COVERS INTEL: Baraniewski averages 11.35 significant strikes landed per minute, while Menifield’s rate is just 3.84.Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski prop: Fight ends before Round 2 (57% Probability)
Baraniewski’s three fights in the UFC have added up to a total octagon time of just 3:22. The 27-year-old is there to attack, find the knockout, and go home with his hand raised.
Menifield’s last two bouts have ended via first-round KO (one win, one loss), so he’s also got some knockout power of his own.
Baraniewski will move forward and push the pace, so we’ll likely see an early finish no matter the outcome.
Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski combo
Combining my top two props for the fight provides a solid payout with a 50% probability at Kalshi.
Baraniewski has an extensive track record of quick knockouts, finishing Junior Tafa, Austen Lane, and Ibo Aslan in less than 90 seconds each.
I’d play this up to 57%.
Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Alonzo Menifield | Iwo Baraniewski |
| To win outright | 32% | 69% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 17% | 60% |
| To win by decision | 6% | 9% |
| To win by submission | 6% | 10% |
| Total rounds | Over 2.5 17% |
Under 2.5 85% |
Odds as of 9-17.
There are no surprises here, with all odds backing Baraniewski to find the knockout.
I’d argue that Baraniewski should actually be an even bigger favorite, but Menifield has earned two recent underdog wins, which has kept the win probabilities much closer in this matchup.
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Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski tale of the tape
| Alonzo Menifield | Iwo Baraniewski | |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Age | 27 |
| 6-foot | Height | 6-foot |
| Light Heavyweight | Weight Class | Light Heavyweight |
| 76 inches | Reach | 73 inches |
| 18-6-1 | Record | 9-0 |
| 11 | Wins by KO | 7 |
| 3 | Wins by submission | 2 |
Menifield will enjoy a three-inch reach advantage, though that likely won’t be a huge factor as both men like to move forward and fight in tight.
All nine of Baraniewski’s wins have come via finish, while 78% of Menifield’s have also been decided by either KO or submission.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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