The UFC returns to Philadelphia tonight with a loaded 12-fight card featuring a welterweight championship bout between Islam Makhachev and Ian Garry Machado.
Current UFC odds list the pound-for-pound great Makhachev as a sizable -370 betting favorite, and while I believe the value in that fight likely lies on the challenger, there are better betting spots elsewhere on this card.
My UFC 330 parlay and free betting picks for Saturday, Aug. 15 are relying on Mackenzie Dern coasting to victory over Gillian Robertson.
Best UFC 330 parlay picks
Donte Johnson moneyline
Joel Alvarez moneyline
Turner/Fernandes Over 1.5 rounds
Mackenzie Dern moneyline
Donte Johnson moneyline
Donte Johnson is coming off a less-than-impressive victory over Cody Brundage in his most recent performance. However, he’s still only 27 years old and has less than 10 professional fights on his resume. The improvements are still happening, and the best is yet to come.
He’s been training for this fight in Las Vegas with UFC champion Sean Strickland, and all signs point to a strong showing from the former football player.
His opponent, Eric McConico, is 36 years old and has been knocked out four times in his career. This is a spot designed to make Johnson look good, and that’s exactly what he’s going to do.
Joel Alvarez moneyline
Joel Alvarez had his four-fight win streak snapped in his latest outing when he was submitted by former Bellator champion Yaroslav Amosov, but this is a great matchup to help him get back in the win column and continue his run up the ranks.
Known for his potent submission game, Alvarez has a 97% finish rate in 23 career wins and can end this fight in many ways. He’s taking on 37-year-old Chidi Njokuani, who's been finished nine times in his career.
It might be competitive in spots, but the second Njokuani makes a mistake, expect Alvarez to capitalize and put him away.
Turner/Fernandes Over 1.5 rounds
Jalin Turner is known for his quick finishing abilities, but he’s actually just 2-4 in his last six fights, with both wins being over fighters in their 40s. Half of those fights also ended up hitting Over 1.5 rounds, and I would expect that to be the case here as well.
His opponent, Kaue Fernandes, trains at the famed Nova Uniao gym in Brazil and has never been finished in his 13-fight pro career.
Both men have plenty of skills, and this Over 1.5 rounds wager will be a sweat early. However, the finish won’t materialize until the second half of the fight, if it even happens at all.
Mackenzie Dern moneyline
At the end of the day, the UFC is a business, and it’s good for business to have Mackenzie Dern as their champion.
This isn’t a fight between the two best fighters in the division; it’s a matchup between the champion vs. a questionable contender in Gillian Robertson, who isn’t even ranked in the Top 5.
Robertson enters tonight on a five-fight win streak, with those opponents combining for a 0-19 record in their fights since being defeated by Robertson.
She has no wins over the upper-echelon women of the division, yet she’s being given a title fight. Why? Because it’s the best matchup they could sell to the fans, while also protecting Dern from losing.
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