Umar Nurmagomedov faces off against Mario Bautista on the main card of UFC 321 this Saturday.
This fight will likely serve as a bantamweight title eliminator, and UFC odds have Nurmagomedov installed as a -650 favorite with Bautista coming back at +425.
See how my free betting picks are getting value on the massive favorite with my Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista predictions for October 25 from the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi.
Want to make sure Covers shows up often in your Google search results and Discover feed?
Simply click here and add Covers as one of your "source preferences".
Nurmagomedov vs Bautista prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Nurmagomedov moneyline (-700 at BET99)
- My best bet: Nurmagomedov by decision (-175 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Umar Nurmagomedov is coming off the first defeat of his MMA career after losing a title fight to Merab Dvalishvili in January. I'm not going to downgrade him much for that loss since Merab is the No. 3 pound-for-pound fighter in the world, and it was a competitive decision.
Dvalishvili was able to land seven of 30 takedowns but was able to control Nurmagomedov for only two minutes, and the Dagestani had the clear striking advantage.
Mario Bautista is on an eight-fight win streak, but hasn't always impressed against quality opposition. The best victory on his resume was a split-decision against a 38-year-old Jose Aldo, which he won by holding him against the cage for seven minutes.
He's fresh off a decision win against former Bellator champ Patchy Mix as a +145 underdog. However, that fight looks less impressive in hindsight since Mix was making his promotional debut and also looked awful in his next UFC fight.
Bautista was submitted in his UFC debut against Cory Sandhagen in 2019 and was knocked out by Trevin Giles two years later. Even in a recent win against Da'Mon Blackshear, he was fortunate to get the decision after getting outstruck and taken down four times.
Bautista is a well-rounded fighter who does a good job of blending his striking and grappling. But Nurmagomedov is just a bit more dynamic and technical in all areas. Umar hurts opponents with kicks to every level at range. If his foes try to close the distance, he can implement his grappling.
Best bet analysis
Four of Nurmagomedov's last five fights have gone the distance, and he was unable to finish unranked foes like Bekzat Almakhan and Nate Maness during that span.
Only five of Umar's last 14 wins have been by finish, and four of those came by rear-naked choke. Bautista rarely allows opponents to take his back and he boasts strong submission defense.
The American is a tough fighter with good conditioning and the ability to maintain a high pace for 15 minutes. I don't see Bautista winning, but his scrambling and durability are good enough to make it to the end of Round 3.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Nurmagomedov | Bautista |
| To win outright | -700 | +450 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +640 | +2100 |
| To win by decision | -175 | +730 |
| To win by submission | +335 | +4000 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 10-24.
Bet on the UFC at BET99!
One of Canada's best sportsbooks for UFC betting, join BET99 and get up to $1,000 bonus bets back if your first bet doesn’t win when using our BET99 promo code COVERSBONUS!
*Not available in Ontario
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista tale of the tape
| Nurmagomedov | Bautista | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Age | 32 |
| 5-foot-8 | Height | 5-foot-9 |
| Bantamweight | Weight Class | Bantamweight |
| 69 inches | Reach | 69 inches |
| 18-1 | Record | 16-2 |
| 2 | Wins by KO | 3 |
| 7 | Wins by submission | 6 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
