Virna Jandiroba lost a narrow decision to Mackenzie Dern in 2020, but she's in line for revenge with the vacant strawweight title on the line in the UFC 321 co-main event.
Dern is currently a -155 favorite in the UFC odds, while Jandiroba is listed as a +135 underdog.
Let's dive into my UFC 321: Jandiroba vs. Dern predictions for Saturday, October 25.
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Jandiroba vs Dern prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Jandiroba moneyline (+135 at BET99)
- My best bet: Over 4.5 rounds (-160 at BET99)
Fight analysis
When these two first met five years ago, Mackenzie Dern edged out a competitive fight by keeping it upright and relying on her cleaner striking. That version of Dern was still raw, while Jandiroba was a grinding wrestler who struggled to impose her grappling.
Enough has changed in the last five years that, while this remains a fundamentally similar fight, the outcome of their first fight carries little significance ahead of this championship rematch.
Since their first encounter, Jandiroba has gone 6-1 and enters this bout off a dominant decision win over Yan Xiaonan, where she racked up over 10 minutes of control time and repeatedly threatened submissions. Her wrestling style is designed to stifle and neutralize opponents, and once Jandiroba drags a fight to the mat, she rarely lets the competition slip away.
The problem for Dern is that her wrestling is still a work in progress, whereas Jandiroba is more refined. Dern's striking has improved, but she remains hittable, and her lack of takedown defense often leaves her fighting off her back foot.
Ultimately, Jandiroba’s refined wrestling and improved control game give her the edge in dictating where the fight takes place. If she can chain wrestle and get Dern on the mat, Jandiroba should be able to do enough this time to get a win.
Best bet analysis
Both fighters are durable, and their paths to victory rely on control and position rather than explosive finishing.
Though these two boast impressive ground and submission skills, they are not finishers. Expect this fight to remain relatively low-key, even as it heads into the championship rounds and beyond.
Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Jandiroba | Dern |
| To win outright | +135 | -155 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +1900 | +600 |
| To win by decision | +285 | +235 |
| To win by submission | +475 | +300 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 10-24.
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Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern tale of the tape
| Jandiroba | Dern | |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 32 |
| 5-foot-3 | Height | 5-foot-4 |
| Strawweight | Weight Class | Strawweight |
| 64 inches | Reach | 63 inches |
| 22-3 | Record | 15-5 |
| 1 | Wins by KO | 0 |
| 14 | Wins by submission | 8 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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