Australian Open Women's Final Odds and Predictions: Straight Sets? Don't Think So!

The time has finally come to crown this year’s Australian Open champion on the women’s side, but a first-time winner is anything but a guarantee.

The defending champion here in Melbourne, Aryna Sabalenka, enters Saturday’s final as an overwhelming favorite in the Australian Open odds over newcomer Qinwen Zheng, who looks to complete her ascent to the top of the women's game. 

Is an upset on the cards, or will we see more dominance out of Sabalenka?

Let’s take a look at how the match should shake out in our free betting picks for Zheng vs. Sabalenka on Saturday, January 27.

Australian Open Women's Final picks and predictions

• Prediction: Sabalenka moneyline (-590 at BetRivers)
• Best bet: Zheng +1.5 sets (+130 at DraftKings)

Click on each prediction to read full analysis.

Qinwen Zheng vs Aryna Sabalenka odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings on January 25, 2024.

Qinwen Zheng vs Aryna Sabalenka match prediction

This should be a tantalizing matchup between two excellent ball-strikers. On one side of the net, we have the defending champion – whose serve and forehand have hit every player on tour off the court at one point in time. Her Achilles heel has long been the mental side of her game, but Sabalenka has seemed to overcome those obstacles with a resounding 2023 season beginning with her first-ever Grand Slam title right here in Melbourne.

While this is a mismatch on paper between a 21-year-old upstart and the World No. 2, who has a wealth of experience, this may wind up being a closer match than oddsmakers are expecting. Few can hit as hard as Sabalenka, and Zheng is certainly one of those players with her excellent serve, and forehand which achieves incredible weight and pushes her opponents back in the court.

I expect some trouble to start this match for Sabalenka, who will be made a passenger in rallies for the first time all tournament. I expect her to solve the problems Zheng poses, and it should be said that the Chinese, while she’s been great on serve has also led the field in double faults and has been her own worst enemy.

This is indeed a mismatch when you consider Zheng has never played on this stage before, and while I expect her to have a good showing here this should be Sabalenka’s night.

Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka moneyline (-590 at BetRivers)

Qinwen Zheng vs Aryna Sabalenka best bet

If you go back and look at Sabalenka’s history in finals, she’s hardly had an easy time finishing the job. She’s just 3-7 in these matches over the last two seasons and even in her wins, she’s managed to drop a set along the way. You have to go back to the 2021 Abu Dhabi championships to find a final in which she dusted her opponent off in straight sets.

Although she’s conquered a lot of her mental demons, Sabalenka has still had some issues in recent matches playing from ahead – being broken five times in two matches – and she will be up against a player in Zheng who is breaking serve over 41% of the time to start the 2024 season.

With Zheng flying high right now, and with her ability to bring something different to the court that Sabalenka’s not seen in some time, I expect her to negotiate one of these first two sets before Sabalenka eventually uses her experience and all-world game to finish off this match.

You’re getting tremendous value here on Sabalenka to drop a set in a final – something she has done on 12 straight occasions – and you’re also getting it with a player who very well may finish the season in the top 10. Zheng has a big, exciting game and I expect – at least for 20 or 30 minutes – for that to shine through and stun Sabalenka.

Best bet: Zheng +1.5 sets (+130 at DraftKings)

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic