The Golden Knights have managed just 41 shots on net through two games with Oettinger posting a brutal .850 save percentage. The Dallas goalie is not a lock to finish this game if things get ugly early as head coach Peter DeBoer could pull the starter in an effort to motivate his tender and the group. Even if he does play and finish the game, his Under 25.5 saves at -105 still looks great considering the volume Vegas has been shooting and how elite Dallas was at suppressing shot attempts. Dallas could also come out flying in desperation mode and actually play like the No.1 seed which should tilt the ice in their favor and help minimize Vegas' possession and ultimately shots on net. I see more outs for Oettinger’s Under 25.5 saves than I do his Over.
Not only are both goaltenders playing well, but both teams are doing a good job of preventing high-danger scoring chances in the playoffs. Among the 16 playoff teams, Dallas ranks fifth in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) while Vegas ranks ninth in the same category. Meanwhile, both teams rank eighth or lower in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). These two teams rely on depth and two-way play for success, so it is not surprising that there have been five or fewer total goals scored in 16 of the past 22 meetings. Both teams know that the Stars are in a must-win spot in this outing, so I expect a tight-checking affair with limited mistakes but conservative play in what essentially feels like an elimination game.