Indianapolis Colts

Picks

Houston still has plenty to play for. The Texans remain alive in the division race, and even if that falls short, holding onto the five seed is important to avoid a first-round matchup against a 12-win team. While Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel scored last week, their usage has been volatile and difficult to rely on. Nico Collins remains the clear focal point of this offense and now draws a favorable setup against an Indianapolis team starting a late-round rookie quarterback and playing for nothing. That opens the door for short fields and extra scoring chances. Collins has been priced much shorter than this at points throughout the season, making this number attractive. I’d buy him to +140.

The Texans have secured a playoff spot and can even still win the AFC South if the Jaguars shit the bed versus the Titans. While that scenario seems a little farfetched, Houston can still earn the No. 5 seed in the AFC with a win in Week 18.

The Texans are at home to the Colts, who could be starting Riley Leonard over Philip Rivers at quarterback in the finale. Either way, this Texans defense is a tall task for any QB. 

Houston has given up more than 21 points only once on its eight-game run and has taken down some of the NFL best quarterbacks along the way. C. J. Stroud and the offense do their best work inside NRG Stadium, where Houston averages 6.2 points more than on the road.  

This spread sits short of the key number of -10 at some shops while other books are already dealing the Texans as high as -10.5 in Week 18. Get that -9.5 now.