Carolina Panthers

3rd in NFC South (0 - 2 - 0)

Next Game

ATLAtlanta Atlanta
at
Carolina CARCarolina
Sun, Sep 21 13:00 ET

ATL @ CAR Picks

NFL Picks
Score a Touchdown
Tyler Allgeier logo Tyler Allgeier Score a Touchdown (Yes: +260)
Best Odds
 +260 bet365
Pick made: 13 hours ago
Jason Logan image
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
 +215
 +260
 +250
 -
 -

The Falcons have a two-headed monster in the backfield and while Bijan Robinson gets the fan fare, Tyler Allgeiger could be a starter on most NFL teams. More importantly, he gets red zone snaps. He was a beast versus Minnesota with 16 total carries and was active in the red zone, including a 5-yard TD rumble to put the game away – granted the Vikes were doing that “let them score” and hope for an onside kick. He had a massive day against Carolina in their most recent meeting and I love the +260 payout.

Score a Touchdown
Tyler Allgeier logo Tyler Allgeier Score a Touchdown (Yes: +260)
Best Odds
 +260 bet365
Pick made: 9 hours ago
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
 +215
 +260
 +250
 -
 -

Through two games, Allgeier and Robinson are tied with two carries each inside the 5-yard line, but Allgeier is the only one who has converted those into touchdowns. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson seems more comfortable using Allgeier in short-yardage situations—he has double the number of carries inside the 10 compared to Bijan. Allgeier also closed out the Sunday night game and finished with 16 carries. Even before the final two drives, he had 7 carries to Bijan’s 18, suggesting a roughly 70/30 split—with red-zone work included. This sets up well in a game where Atlanta could once again be running the clock late. At +260 to score, Allgeier offers value in a run-heavy offense. Only three teams in the NFL are running at a higher rate than Atlanta’s 50%, so there’s enough volume for the backup to stay involved.

Receptions Made
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Kyle Pitts Sr. u3.5 Receptions Made (-112)
Projection 2.9 (Under)
Best Odds
u3.5 -112 FanDuel
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
 -
u3.5  -112
 -
 -
The Falcons are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.. The model projects the Falcons to be the 2nd-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 50.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats decreased) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
-112 at FanDuel
Passing Completions
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Michael Penix Jr. u19.5 Passing Completions (-113)
Projection 17.2 (Under)
Best Odds
u19.5 -113 DraftKings
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u19.5  -113
 -
u19.5  -125
These are quick bet odds
u19.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
u19.5  -120
These are quick bet odds
The Falcons are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.. The model projects the Falcons to be the 2nd-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 50.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats decreased) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
-113 at DraftKings
Passing Attempts
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Michael Penix Jr. u30.5 Passing Attempts (+100)
Projection 27.3 (Under)
Best Odds
u30.5 +100 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u30.5  -108
 -
u30.5  +100
These are quick bet odds
u30.5  -120
These are quick bet odds
u30.5  -109
These are quick bet odds
The Falcons are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.. The model projects the Falcons to be the 2nd-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 50.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats decreased) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
+100 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Passing Yards
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Michael Penix Jr. u217.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Projection 193.5 (Under)
Best Odds
u218.5 -115 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u217.5  -112
 -
u214.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
u218.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
u215.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
The Falcons are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.. The model projects the Falcons to be the 2nd-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 50.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats decreased) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
-115 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Passing Yards
Bryce Young logo
Bryce Young u214.5 Passing Yards (-111)
Projection 200.9 (Under)
Best Odds
u215.5 -115 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u214.5  -111
 -
u210.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
u215.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
u212.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to see only 122.4 offensive plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.. The fewest plays in football have been called by the Panthers since the start of last season (a measly 55.2 per game on average).. Bryce Young's 58.4% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a meaningful decrease in his passing accuracy over last season's 61.9% rate.. With a feeble 5.69 adjusted yards-per-target (15th percentile) this year, Bryce Young has been as one of the least effective QBs in the league.. Since the start of last season, the stout Atlanta Falcons defense has given up the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing offenses: a puny 7.4 yards.
-115 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Interceptions Thrown
Bryce Young logo
Bryce Young u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+106)
Projection 0.4 (Under)
Best Odds
u0.5 +106 FanDuel
Pick made: 10 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
 -
u0.5  +106
u0.5  +105
These are quick bet odds
 -
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to see only 122.4 offensive plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.. The fewest plays in football have been called by the Panthers since the start of last season (a measly 55.2 per game on average).. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Atlanta's collection of LBs has been very good since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-best in the NFL.
+106 at FanDuel
Receiving Yards
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Kyle Pitts Sr. u39.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Projection 31.1 (Under)
Best Odds
u40.5 -114 FanDuel
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u38.5  -111
 -
u40.5  -114
u38.5  -110
u39.5  -105
The Falcons are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.. The model projects the Falcons to be the 2nd-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 50.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats decreased) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
-114 at FanDuel
Receiving Yards
Tetairoa McMillan logo
Tetairoa McMillan u65.5 Receiving Yards (-116)
Projection 59.6 (Under)
Best Odds
u65.5 -114 FanDuel
Pick made: 16 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
u64.5  -113
 -
u65.5  -114
u65.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
u65.5  -116
These are quick bet odds
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to see only 122.4 offensive plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.. The fewest plays in football have been called by the Panthers since the start of last season (a measly 55.2 per game on average).. Since the start of last season, the fierce Atlanta Falcons pass defense has allowed the 5th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing wide receivers: a mere 3.5 YAC.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Atlanta's collection of LBs has been very good since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-best in the NFL.
-114 at FanDuel
Rushing Yards
Chuba Hubbard logo
Chuba Hubbard o54.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Projection 62.9 (Over)
Best Odds
o54.5 -115 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o60.5  -109
 -
o56.5  -114
o54.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o58.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
In this contest, Chuba Hubbard is forecasted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 84th percentile when it comes to RBs with 16.0 rush attempts.. Among all RBs, Chuba Hubbard ranks in the 93rd percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 63.4% of the workload in his offense's run game.. Chuba Hubbard has grinded out 76.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in football among RBs (94th percentile).. The Falcons defense owns the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, giving up 4.73 adjusted yards-per-carry.
-115 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Michael Penix Jr. o5.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
Projection 7.6 (Over)
Best Odds
o5.5 -105 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o7.5  -117
 -
o5.5  -114
o5.5  -105
These are quick bet odds
 -
The Falcons are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.. The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 2nd-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 49.9% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in football have been called by the Falcons since the start of last season (a whopping 59.7 per game on average).. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats decreased) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather this week.. Since the start of last season, the porous Panthers run defense has conceded a colossal 186.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in the NFL.
-105 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds

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Consensus Picks

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Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.
Spread

76% picking Atlanta

76%
24%

Total Picks ATL 602, CAR 191

Spread
ATL
CAR
Spread
-4.5 -102
+5.5 -110

Top User Picks

View all Top User Picks

User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.
Total

'cryhavoc' picks Atlanta vs Carolina to go Under (44.5)

cryhavoc is #1 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
43.0 -110
43.5 +100
Spread

'cryhavoc' is picking Atlanta to cover (-2.5)

cryhavoc is #1 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
CAR
Spread
-4.5 -102
+5.5 -110
Spread

'peachiee2023' is picking Atlanta to cover (-2.5)

peachiee2023 is #3 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
CAR
Spread
-4.5 -102
+5.5 -110
Total

'peachiee2023' picks Atlanta vs Carolina to go Under (44.5)

peachiee2023 is #3 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
43.0 -110
43.5 +100
Spread

'money455' is picking Atlanta to cover (-2.5)

money455 is #4 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
CAR
Spread
-4.5 -102
+5.5 -110
Total

'money455' picks Atlanta vs Carolina to go Under (44.5)

money455 is #4 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
43.0 -110
43.5 +100
Spread

'deebo7348' is picking Atlanta to cover (-2.5)

deebo7348 is #5 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
CAR
Spread
-4.5 -102
+5.5 -110
Total

'deebo7348' picks Atlanta vs Carolina to go Under (44.5)

deebo7348 is #5 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
43.0 -110
43.5 +100
Total

'RoyFurr' picks Atlanta vs Carolina to go Under (44.5)

RoyFurr is #6 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
43.0 -110
43.5 +100
Spread

'RoyFurr' is picking Atlanta to cover (-2.5)

RoyFurr is #6 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
CAR
Spread
-4.5 -102
+5.5 -110
Spread

'bryanoens' is picking Carolina to cover (+6.0)

bryanoens is #6 on picking games that Carolina is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
CAR
Spread
-4.5 -102
+5.5 -110
Total

'bryanoens' picks Atlanta vs Carolina to go Over (43.0)

bryanoens is #6 on picking games that Carolina is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
43.0 -110
43.5 +100
Total

'deerkiller' picks Atlanta vs Carolina to go Over (43.0)

deerkiller is #7 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
43.0 -110
43.5 +100
Spread

'deerkiller' is picking Atlanta to cover (-5.5)

deerkiller is #7 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
CAR
Spread
-4.5 -102
+5.5 -110
Total

'd33jay86' picks Atlanta vs Carolina to go Under (44.5)

d33jay86 is #8 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
43.0 -110
43.5 +100
Spread

'd33jay86' is picking Atlanta to cover (-2.5)

d33jay86 is #8 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
CAR
Spread
-4.5 -102
+5.5 -110

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