Carolina Panthers

Picks

The Panthers have been gashed through the air the past two games for a 68.9 completion percentage and 8.44 yards per target while allowing the fifth-highest dropback success rate and ranking 24th in pass defense DVOA. Now that Mayfield has his full receiving corps back on the field, he can pick apart a Carolina defense generating QB pressure at the second-lowest rate in the NFL and ranking 31st in PFF pass rush grade.

Jalen McMillan eased back into the lineup in Week 15, running about half the routes and drawing two targets that turned into 38 yards. That usage could climb this week against a Carolina defense that’s struggled, especially if the game environment tilts toward another shootout. ESPN Insider Jeremy Fowler expects McMillan’s role to grow in his second game back, noting that the coaching staff is encouraged by what they saw. With Emeka Egbuka showing signs of a rookie wall, McMillan is a candidate for an expanded workload. I’m interested in McMillan as a touchdown play up to +350, but if the price shortens, I’d rather pivot to Chris Godwin at +275 or better.

Tampa Bay has had a mini bye to get over a Thursday Night Football loss to Atlanta and enters Week 16 with its full arsenal of offensive weapons. The Buccaneers put up 338 yards and 28 first downs on TNF, averaging 5.5 yards per play and going 3 for 3 in the red zone. They just sucked on defense. Tampa Bay allowed close to 500 yards of offense from the Falcons, who scored 29 points. Carolina’s defense was almost as bad in a Week 15 flop at New Orleans. The Panthers made the Saints look good, with NOLA racking up 337 yards, 27 first downs, and 6.7 yards per play. The Panthers get to come home this Sunday, where their offense averages over six points more than on the road. This Over/Under sits just short of the key number of 46 points and feels too short considering the poor defenses we’ve seen from these divisional foes.