Carolina Panthers
Picks

1st in NFC South (7 - 6 - 0)

Next Game

at

Sun, Dec 14 16:25 ET

CAR @ NO Picks

Rushing Yards

Tyler Shough u21.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Best Odds

Pick made: 12 hours ago

Tyler Shough scrambled for 55 yards on seven carries last week but 34 of those yards came on a single run. The rookie QB had been held below 20 rushing yards in four of his previous five starts and his previous career-high was a 22-yard game against Atlanta. He also didn't run much in college and on Sunday he faces a Carolina defense that contains quarterbacks on the ground. The Panthers have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (10.2) and the second-fewest yards per rush attempt (2.8) to opposing QBs. They are dead-last in the league in pressure rate so they rarely flush quarterbacks out of the pocket.

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Touchdowns

Chuba Hubbard o0.5 Touchdowns (+205)

Best Odds

Pick made: yesterday

Bettors may have forgotten how much Chuba Hubbard’s usage jumped before the bye. He went over 100 total yards for the first time all season in Week 13 against the Rams and scored his first touchdown since Week 8. He logged 17 carries to Rico Dowdle’s 18 and added two receptions. Dowdle is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry across his last four games on 61 attempts and may be trending toward a 1B role in what could be a run-heavy matchup with the Saints. There shouldn’t be a 100-point difference between the two Carolina backs in touchdown pricing. If Hubbard is in line for 15-plus touches, he should be closer to +140.

Spread

CAR -2.5 (-107)

Best Odds

Pick made: 3 days ago

Carolina is coming off a Week 14 bye in the thick of the race for top spot in the NFC South, and the Black Cats are trading Under the key number of 3 against the 3-10 Saints. New Orleans is ripe for a letdown spot after playing spoiler and topping the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 14, while Carolina quarterback Bryce Young is quietly turning the corner with the eighth-highest EPA+CPOE composite dating back to Week 9. Young has aired it out for 8.8 yards per attempt with a 68.1 completion percentage over his past three games, too.

Passing Yards

Bryce Young o195.5 Passing Yards (-102)

Projection 218.77 (Over)

Best Odds

o192.5 -115

Pick made: 7 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o196.5 -113

o193.5 -110

o196.5 -114

o192.5 -115

o195.5 -102

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see 130.3 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, New Orleans's group of safeties has been awful this year, profiling as the 8th-worst in the league.

Interceptions Thrown

Bryce Young u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+108)

Projection 0.4 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Carolina Panthers to pass on 53.7% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Opposing offenses have averaged 28.5 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: fewest in the league.

+108 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Ja'Tavion Sanders o12.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

Projection 22.32 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see 130.3 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, New Orleans's group of safeties has been awful this year, profiling as the 8th-worst in the league.

-111 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

Tetairoa McMillan o57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 68.69 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 12 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see 130.3 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, New Orleans's group of safeties has been awful this year, profiling as the 8th-worst in the league.

Receiving Yards

Juwan Johnson o36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 44.97 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The model projects this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.3 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Saints this year (a whopping 59.1 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. In this contest, Juwan Johnson is projected by the model to slot into the 91st percentile among tight ends with 6.2 targets.. The Carolina Panthers defense has conceded the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (64.0) to TEs this year.

-115 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

Rico Dowdle u13.5 Receiving Yards (-117)

Projection 13 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Carolina Panthers to pass on 53.9% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Opposing offenses have averaged 28.5 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: fewest in the league.. When it comes to air yards, Rico Dowdle grades out in the lowly 25th percentile among RBs this year, averaging just -2.0 per game.. Rico Dowdle's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season shows a meaningful drop-off in his effectiveness in the open field over last season's 7.0% figure.. The Saints defense has yielded the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 21.0) vs. RBs this year.

-117 at DraftKings

Rushing Yards

Bryce Young o7.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Projection 14.77 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 8 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Carolina Panthers to run on 46.1% of their downs: the 10th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see 130.3 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.. Bryce Young's ground efficiency (6.40 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (79th percentile among quarterbacks).. This year, the poor New Orleans Saints run defense has been gouged for a whopping 132.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 7th-most in football.

-115 at Caesars

Rushing Yards

Devin Neal o49.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Projection 59.64 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

Right now, the 3rd-most run-focused team in football (44.3% in a neutral context) according to the model is the New Orleans Saints.. The model projects this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.3 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Saints this year (a whopping 59.1 per game on average).. This year, the tough Panthers run defense has allowed a puny 4.79 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 23rd-lowest rate in the NFL.. When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Carolina's group of LBs has been awful this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in the league. in the league.

-114 at FanDuel

Rushing Attempts

Tyler Shough u5.5 Rushing Attempts (-105)

Projection 4.65 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 7 hours ago

EV Model Rating

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

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75% picking Carolina

75% 75%

25% 25%

Total Picks CAR 455, NO 149

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CAR

NO

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Top User Picks

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'samua' is picking Carolina to cover (-2.5)

samua is #1 on picking games that Carolina is in with a record of (9-4-0) and +5150 units on the season.

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CAR

NO

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'samua' picks Carolina vs New Orleans to go Under (39.5)

samua is #1 on picking games that Carolina is in with a record of (9-4-0) and +5150 units on the season.

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Under

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'TwoDrunk2Bunt' picks Carolina vs New Orleans to go Under (40.5)

TwoDrunk2Bunt is #1 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (8-2-1) and +7300 units on the season.

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'TwoDrunk2Bunt' is picking Carolina to cover (-2.5)

TwoDrunk2Bunt is #1 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (8-2-1) and +7300 units on the season.

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CAR

NO

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'campellnyr917' picks Carolina vs New Orleans to go Under (39.5)

campellnyr917 is #6 on picking games that Carolina is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'campellnyr917' is picking Carolina to cover (-2.5)

campellnyr917 is #6 on picking games that Carolina is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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CAR

NO

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'sockss109' is picking Carolina to cover (-2.5)

sockss109 is #8 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (11-2-0) and +4600 units on the season.

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CAR

NO

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'sockss109' picks Carolina vs New Orleans to go Over (39.5)

sockss109 is #8 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (11-2-0) and +4600 units on the season.

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Under

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'Bassboy7276' picks Carolina vs New Orleans to go Over (40.5)

Bassboy7276 is #8 on picking games that Carolina is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +4650 units on the season.

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'culp5050' is picking Carolina to cover (-2.5)

culp5050 is #9 on picking games that Carolina is in with a record of (11-2-0) and +4600 units on the season.

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CAR

NO

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'culp5050' picks Carolina vs New Orleans to go Over (39.5)

culp5050 is #9 on picking games that Carolina is in with a record of (11-2-0) and +4600 units on the season.

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'dmoney1981' picks Carolina vs New Orleans to go Over (39.5)

dmoney1981 is #9 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (10-3-0) and +4600 units on the season.

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Under

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'dmoney1981' is picking Carolina to cover (-2.5)

dmoney1981 is #9 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (10-3-0) and +4600 units on the season.

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CAR

NO

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