Atlanta Falcons

3rd in NFC South (3 - 7 - 0)

Next Game

Sun, Nov 23 16:25 ET

Player Props

Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Chris Olave Score a Touchdown Props • New Orleans

Chris Olave
C. Olave
wide receiver WR • New Orleans
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.46
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.46
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 133.4 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. Chris Olave has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 26.7% this year, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers. Chris Olave has totaled significantly more air yards this year (106.0 per game) than he did last year (57.0 per game). Chris Olave's 67.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 45.5.

Chris Olave logo

Chris Olave

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.46
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.46

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 133.4 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. Chris Olave has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 26.7% this year, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers. Chris Olave has totaled significantly more air yards this year (106.0 per game) than he did last year (57.0 per game). Chris Olave's 67.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 45.5.

All Matchup props

Kyle Pitts Sr. Score a Touchdown Props • Atlanta

Kyle Pitts Sr.
K. Pitts Sr.
tight end TE • Atlanta
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.32
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.32
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 133.4 total plays run: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Our trusted projections expect Kyle Pitts to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game near the goal line in this game (25.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.1% in games he has played). Kyle Pitts has accrued far more air yards this season (43.0 per game) than he did last season (36.0 per game). Kyle Pitts's 42.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 30.4.

Kyle Pitts Sr. logo

Kyle Pitts Sr.

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.32
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.32

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 133.4 total plays run: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Our trusted projections expect Kyle Pitts to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game near the goal line in this game (25.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.1% in games he has played). Kyle Pitts has accrued far more air yards this season (43.0 per game) than he did last season (36.0 per game). Kyle Pitts's 42.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 30.4.

All Matchup props

Darnell Mooney Score a Touchdown Props • Atlanta

Darnell Mooney
D. Mooney
wide receiver WR • Atlanta
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.28
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.28
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 133.4 total plays run: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. While Darnell Mooney has earned 15.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Atlanta's passing attack near the end zone in this contest at 23.2%. Darnell Mooney has compiled significantly more air yards this year (84.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game). Darnell Mooney ranks in the 76th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with an astounding 51.3 figure this year.

Darnell Mooney logo

Darnell Mooney

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.28
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.28

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 133.4 total plays run: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. While Darnell Mooney has earned 15.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Atlanta's passing attack near the end zone in this contest at 23.2%. Darnell Mooney has compiled significantly more air yards this year (84.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game). Darnell Mooney ranks in the 76th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with an astounding 51.3 figure this year.

All Matchup props

Juwan Johnson Score a Touchdown Props • New Orleans

Juwan Johnson
J. Johnson
tight end TE • New Orleans
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.29
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.29
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 133.4 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. Juwan Johnson has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which ranks him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs. Juwan Johnson has totaled many more air yards this season (45.0 per game) than he did last season (31.0 per game). Juwan Johnson's 39.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 28.0.

Juwan Johnson logo

Juwan Johnson

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.29
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.29

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 133.4 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. Juwan Johnson has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which ranks him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs. Juwan Johnson has totaled many more air yards this season (45.0 per game) than he did last season (31.0 per game). Juwan Johnson's 39.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 28.0.

All Matchup props

Alvin Kamara Score a Touchdown Props • New Orleans

Alvin Kamara
A. Kamara
running back RB • New Orleans
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.38
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.38
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 133.4 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. Alvin Kamara has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 12.8% this year, which ranks him in the 88th percentile among running backs. When talking about air yards, Alvin Kamara ranks in the lofty 94th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a massive 4.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards). Alvin Kamara's 83.9% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a remarkable boost in his pass-catching skills over last year's 76.6% mark.

Alvin Kamara logo

Alvin Kamara

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.38
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.38

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 133.4 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. Alvin Kamara has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 12.8% this year, which ranks him in the 88th percentile among running backs. When talking about air yards, Alvin Kamara ranks in the lofty 94th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a massive 4.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards). Alvin Kamara's 83.9% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a remarkable boost in his pass-catching skills over last year's 76.6% mark.

All Matchup props

Bijan Robinson Score a Touchdown Props • Atlanta

Bijan Robinson
B. Robinson
running back RB • Atlanta
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.56
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.56
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 133.4 total plays run: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Bijan Robinson has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 29.0% this year, which puts him in the 99th percentile among RBs. Bijan Robinson has totaled a monstrous 7.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to RBs. (That might not seem like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage). Bijan Robinson's 30.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 21.9.

Bijan Robinson logo

Bijan Robinson

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.56
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.56

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 133.4 total plays run: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Bijan Robinson has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 29.0% this year, which puts him in the 99th percentile among RBs. Bijan Robinson has totaled a monstrous 7.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to RBs. (That might not seem like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage). Bijan Robinson's 30.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 21.9.

All Matchup props

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV
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