NFL Player Props and Best Projections

The most plays in football have been called by the Browns since the start of last season (a massive 62.2 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Washington Commanders linebackers project as the best unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on running than their typical approach. Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to call the 5th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The Chargers have called the 9th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 56.4 plays per game. The Los Angeles Chargers have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game results when facing windier weather this week. Opposing QBs have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game against the Giants defense since the start of last season: 5th-fewest in the NFL.

With a 3.5-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their standard game plan. Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the 49ers to run on 46.5% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The opposing side have rushed for the 9th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (127 per game) vs. the Jaguars defense since the start of last season.

The Vikings have been the 6th-most run-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year with a 41.3% run rate. The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.63 seconds per snap. Minnesota's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats too low) in light of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We should be able to expect some regression with windier weather in this week's contest. While Carson Wentz has been responsible for 1.2% of his team's rushing play calls in games he has played since the start of last season, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Minnesota's ground game this week at 17.0%. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Pittsburgh's unit has been dreadful since the start of last season, grading out as the 3rd-worst in football. in football.

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach. The model projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The Dallas Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.4 plays per game. The Green Bay Packers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, tempting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (34.6 per game) since the start of last season. Dak Prescott is positioned as one of the best QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 252.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 93rd percentile.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have 129.8 plays on offense called: the 3rd-most among all games this week. The model projects Chase Brown to accumulate 17.9 carries in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 95th percentile among RBs. After accounting for 63.8% of his offense's run game usage last season, Chase Brown has been more involved in the running game this season, now comprising 80.7%.

This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Broncos, who are a heavy favorite by 7.5 points. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Broncos to run on 45.0% of their downs: the 9th-highest frequency among all teams this week. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are anticipated by the model to run 65.8 offensive plays in this game: the 4th-most among all teams this week. Since the start of last season, the shaky Cincinnati Bengals run defense has surrendered a colossal 128.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 7th-most in football. As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Cincinnati's collection of LBs has been awful since the start of last season, projecting as the 9th-worst in the league. in the league.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 136.0 offensive plays run: the most out of all the games this week. The Saints have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest. Since the start of last season, the formidable Buffalo Bills run defense has surrendered a puny 4.71 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's running game: the 25th-lowest rate in the league. The Bills linebackers rank as the worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by the projection model to run 68.0 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-most on the slate this week. The 9th-most plays in football have been run by the Bears since the start of last season (a massive 58.6 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. In this week's game, Cole Kmet is anticipated by the model to position himself in the 76th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.7 targets. The Raiders pass defense has displayed bad efficiency versus tight ends since the start of last season, yielding 8.36 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-most in football.

At the present time, the 9th-quickest paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Titans. The Houston Texans linebackers project as the 8th-worst LB corps in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

The model projects the Lions to run the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 5th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Lions since the start of last season (a staggering 59.3 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. Jared Goff's throwing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 72.0% to 80.6%. With a remarkable 8.18 adjusted yards-per-target (84th percentile) this year, Jared Goff ranks among the most efficient QBs in the NFL.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline. With an exceptional 48.2% Route% (87th percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Jacobs places among the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the NFL. The projections expect Josh Jacobs to accumulate 4.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Packers grades out as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season. Josh Jacobs has been one of the top running backs in the league at grinding out extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a fantastic 9.79 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 98th percentile.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 136.0 offensive plays called: the highest number among all games this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football. With a high 45.3% Route% (80th percentile) this year, James Cook ranks among the pass-catching RBs with the biggest workloads in football. In this week's contest, James Cook is anticipated by our trusted projection set to place in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.1 targets. In regards to air yards, James Cook grades out in the towering 81st percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accumulating an astounding 1.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).

The predictive model expects Chuba Hubbard to garner 15.3 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile when it comes to RBs. The Patriots defensive ends profile as the 8th-worst DE corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are expected by the model to run 65.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week. The Commanders have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a massive 59.3 plays per game. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Colts, who are -3.5-point underdogs. The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Our trusted projections expect Jonathan Taylor to be a much smaller piece of his offense's ground game in this contest (66.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (77.8% in games he has played). Jonathan Taylor's 87.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season indicates an impressive decrease in his running prowess over last season's 100.0 figure. The Los Angeles Rams defensive tackles project as the 3rd-best DT corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Justin Fields. With a top-tier 97.9% Route Participation% (99th percentile) since the start of last season, Garrett Wilson places among the wideouts with the highest volume in the NFL. The model projects Garrett Wilson to total 10.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. Garrett Wilson has accumulated a staggering 87.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among wideouts. The Jets O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

This week's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Bills, who are a heavy favorite by 15.5 points. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to run on 50.4% of their plays: the greatest clip among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 136.0 offensive plays called: the highest number among all games this week. Josh Allen has grinded out 32.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in football when it comes to QBs (92nd percentile). Since the start of last season, the porous Saints run defense has been torched for a colossal 134.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 6th-most in the league.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline. With a sizeable 85.6% Route% (79th percentile) since the start of last season, Romeo Doubs stands among the WRs with the most usage in the NFL. In regards to air yards, Romeo Doubs ranks in the lofty 78th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a massive 65.0 per game. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Packers grades out as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season. Romeo Doubs's pass-catching effectiveness has been refined this season, averaging 10.96 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 9.56 figure last season.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline. Tucker Kraft has run a route on 83.0% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 97th percentile among TEs. In this game, Tucker Kraft is predicted by our trusted projection set to rank in the 87th percentile among tight ends with 5.9 targets. Tucker Kraft has compiled a whopping 21.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile among TEs. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Packers grades out as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season.

At the moment, the 8th-most pass-focused team in football (62.1% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Miami Dolphins. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, New York's unit has been lousy since the start of last season, ranking as the 9th-worst in football.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to run on 45.3% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest clip on the slate this week. Since the start of last season, the poor Washington Commanders run defense has yielded a staggering 128.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 7th-most in football.

The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 65.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The 8th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Kansas City Chiefs since the start of last season (a whopping 59.0 per game on average). Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in football. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Texans are expected by the projection model to run 65.4 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.

The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The 8th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Kansas City Chiefs since the start of last season (a whopping 59.0 per game on average). Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in football. Isiah Pacheco's 48.2% Route Participation Rate this season marks a significant boost in his passing offense utilization over last season's 33.5% figure.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Packers grades out as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season. Jordan Love's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 65.9% to 70.5%. With a remarkable 8.34 adjusted yards-per-target (90th percentile) this year, Jordan Love places as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league. Since the start of last season, the porous Cowboys defense has yielded a massive 73.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 5th-largest rate in football.

The model projects the Raiders as the 9th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 59.8% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.4 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. In this contest, Geno Smith is forecasted by the model to average the 7th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.7. The Bears pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 8.46 adjusted yards-per-target: the 2nd-most in the NFL.

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the New York Giants since the start of last season (a staggering 58.6 per game on average).

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 7th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Minnesota Vikings defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (34.8 per game) since the start of last season.

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Patriots are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Patriots to run on 46.3% of their opportunities: the 6th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. Opposing teams have run for the most adjusted yards in the NFL (182 per game) versus the Panthers defense since the start of last season.