Jacksonville @ Las Vegas Picks & Props

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL. The running TD column reads "0" on Geno Smith's stats page this year. This year, the anemic Jaguars defense has been torched for a massive 2.14 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-highest rate in football.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL. With a remarkable 23.1% Red Zone Target% (86th percentile) this year, Jakobi Meyers ranks as one of the wideouts with the highest volume near the end zone in football. Jakobi Meyers rates in the 84th percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) with a massive 56.3 mark this year. This year, the shaky Jacksonville Jaguars defense has allowed a whopping 1.43 TDs through the air per game to opposing wideouts: the 3rd-highest rate in football.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL. This year, the fierce Jaguars run defense has yielded a measly 0.57 TDs on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 8th-best rate in football.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 61.4% of their plays: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-focused team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.3% red zone pass rate. The most plays in football have been run by the Jaguars this year (a colossal 61.3 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. This year, the porous Raiders pass defense has yielded a massive 70.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 4th-biggest rate in football.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL. This year, the fierce Jaguars run defense has yielded a measly 0.57 TDs on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 8th-best rate in football.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 61.4% of their plays: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-focused team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.3% red zone pass rate. The most plays in football have been run by the Jaguars this year (a colossal 61.3 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Travis Etienne has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 13.8% this year, which puts him in the 88th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 61.4% of their plays: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-focused team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.3% red zone pass rate. The most plays in football have been run by the Jaguars this year (a colossal 61.3 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Hunter Long's 10.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 3.4.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 61.4% of their plays: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-focused team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.3% red zone pass rate. The most plays in football have been run by the Jaguars this year (a colossal 61.3 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Las Vegas's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in football.