Falcons @ Saints Picks & Props

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Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 135.7 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.. Chris Olave has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 26.7% this year, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Chris Olave has totaled significantly more air yards this year (106.0 per game) than he did last year (57.0 per game).. Chris Olave's 67.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 45.5.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 135.7 total plays run: the most among all games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Our trusted projections expect Kyle Pitts to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game near the goal line in this game (25.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.1% in games he has played).. Kyle Pitts has accrued far more air yards this season (43.0 per game) than he did last season (36.0 per game).. Kyle Pitts's 42.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 30.4.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 135.6 total plays run: the most among all games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. While Darnell Mooney has earned 15.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Atlanta's passing attack near the end zone in this contest at 22.8%.. Darnell Mooney has compiled significantly more air yards this year (84.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game).. Darnell Mooney ranks in the 76th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with an astounding 51.3 figure this year.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 135.7 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.. Alvin Kamara has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 12.8% this year, which ranks him in the 88th percentile among running backs.. When talking about air yards, Alvin Kamara ranks in the lofty 94th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a massive 4.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).. Alvin Kamara's 83.9% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a remarkable boost in his pass-catching skills over last year's 76.6% mark.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 135.6 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.. Juwan Johnson has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which ranks him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs.. Juwan Johnson has totaled many more air yards this season (45.0 per game) than he did last season (31.0 per game).. Juwan Johnson's 39.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 28.0.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 135.7 total plays run: the most among all games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Bijan Robinson has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 29.0% this year, which puts him in the 99th percentile among RBs.. Bijan Robinson has totaled a monstrous 7.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to RBs. (That might not seem like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. Bijan Robinson's 30.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 21.9.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 133.4 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.. This year, the strong Atlanta Falcons run defense has given up a mere 0.80 TDs on the ground per game to opposing offenses: the 9th-smallest rate in the NFL.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Saints to pass on 53.7% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. Opposing offenses have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 4th-fewest in the NFL.. Alvin Kamara's 18.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 34.0.. Alvin Kamara's play as a receiver has worsened this season, compiling a measly 2.8 adjusted catches compared to 4.8 last season.. As it relates to linebackers pass-rushing, Atlanta's LB corps has been great this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Saints to pass on 53.7% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. Opposing offenses have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 4th-fewest in the NFL.. Juwan Johnson's 71.5% Adjusted Catch Rate this season signifies a meaningful drop-off in his receiving talent over last season's 76.7% rate.. This year, the fierce Falcons defense has surrendered a paltry 69.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 4th-smallest rate in the league.. As it relates to linebackers pass-rushing, Atlanta's LB corps has been great this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 135.6 total plays run: the most among all games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Kyle Pitts's 90.8% Route Participation Rate this season reflects a substantial progression in his passing attack volume over last season's 75.7% mark.. In this week's contest, Kyle Pitts is projected by the projection model to land in the 98th percentile among tight ends with 8.4 targets.. Kyle Pitts's play as a receiver has gotten a boost this year, notching 4.2 adjusted receptions compared to a measly 2.7 last year.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 135.6 total plays run: the most among all games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. This week, Darnell Mooney is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 91st percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.7 targets.. The model projects Darnell Mooney to be much more involved in his offense's pass game in this week's contest (25.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (19.1% in games he has played).. In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Falcons ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.

The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 56.0% pass rate.. Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the New Orleans Saints, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (just 28.9 per game) this year.. Bijan Robinson's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 87.4% to 81.5%.. When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, New Orleans's collection of LBs has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 10th-best in the league.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Saints to pass on 53.7% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. Opposing offenses have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 4th-fewest in the NFL.. Chris Olave's 65.4% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a significant diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last year's 73.7% rate.. The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has conceded the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (62.5%) vs. wideouts this year (62.5%).

The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 56.0% pass rate.. Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the New Orleans Saints, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (just 28.9 per game) this year.. Kirk Cousins's throwing accuracy has declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 65.6% to 57.5%.. When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, New Orleans's collection of LBs has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 10th-best in the league.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Saints to pass on 53.7% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. Opposing offenses have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 4th-fewest in the NFL.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-lowest level in football versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year (68.0% Adjusted Completion%).

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 135.6 total plays run: the most among all games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Falcons ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.. This year, the feeble New Orleans Saints defense has allowed a whopping 73.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 9th-biggest rate in football.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 133.4 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.. The Atlanta cornerbacks profile as the 3rd-worst group of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 135.6 total plays run: the most among all games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 135.6 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 135.6 total plays run: the most among all games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Falcons ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.. This year, the feeble New Orleans Saints defense has allowed a whopping 73.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 9th-biggest rate in football.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 135.6 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.. The Falcons pass defense has displayed weak efficiency this year, yielding 7.86 adjusted yards-per-target: the 7th-most in football.. The Atlanta cornerbacks profile as the 3rd-worst group of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Saints to pass on 53.5% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.. Opposing offenses have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 4th-fewest in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 56.0% pass rate.. Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the New Orleans Saints, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (just 28.9 per game) this year.. When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, New Orleans's collection of LBs has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 10th-best in the league.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 135.6 total plays run: the most among all games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. This week, Darnell Mooney is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 91st percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.7 targets.. The model projects Darnell Mooney to be much more involved in his offense's pass game in this week's contest (25.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (19.1% in games he has played).. Darnell Mooney has compiled significantly more air yards this year (84.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game).

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 135.6 total plays run: the most among all games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Kyle Pitts's 90.8% Route Participation Rate this season reflects a substantial progression in his passing attack volume over last season's 75.7% mark.. In this week's contest, Kyle Pitts is projected by the projection model to land in the 98th percentile among tight ends with 8.4 targets.. Kyle Pitts has accrued far more air yards this season (43.0 per game) than he did last season (36.0 per game).

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 135.6 total plays run: the most among all games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. In this week's game, Bijan Robinson is anticipated by the projection model to slot into the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs with 7.1 targets.. Bijan Robinson has totaled a monstrous 7.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to RBs. (That might not seem like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. Bijan Robinson's 30.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 21.9.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 135.6 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.. Juwan Johnson has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (81.8% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (66.6%).. In this contest, Juwan Johnson is anticipated by the projection model to position himself in the 91st percentile among tight ends with 6.3 targets.. Juwan Johnson has totaled many more air yards this season (45.0 per game) than he did last season (31.0 per game).

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 135.6 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.. The model projects Alvin Kamara to garner 3.5 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs.. When talking about air yards, Alvin Kamara ranks in the lofty 94th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a massive 4.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).. Alvin Kamara's 83.9% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a remarkable boost in his pass-catching skills over last year's 76.6% mark.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 135.6 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.. Our trusted projections expect Chris Olave to accumulate 10.1 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 95th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Chris Olave has been much more involved in his team's pass attack this season (28.5% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (19.2%).. Chris Olave has totaled significantly more air yards this year (106.0 per game) than he did last year (57.0 per game).

Right now, the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the NFL (44.0% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Falcons.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 135.6 total plays run: the most among all games this week.. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, New Orleans's unit has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in the league. in the league.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 46.3% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 135.6 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week.. The projections expect Alvin Kamara to accrue 18.1 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs.. Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-most adjusted yards in the league (137 per game) versus the Falcons defense this year.. The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 46.3% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 135.6 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-most adjusted yards in the league (137 per game) versus the Falcons defense this year.. The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 46.3% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 135.6 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week.. The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

Right now, the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the NFL (44.0% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Falcons.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 135.6 total plays run: the most among all games this week.. Our trusted projections expect Bijan Robinson to accumulate 18.8 carries in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 95th percentile among running backs.. Bijan Robinson has earned 63.2% of his team's rushing play calls this year, placing him in the 91st percentile among running backs.. Bijan Robinson has been one of the best RBs in the NFL at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging an exceptional 3.77 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 90th percentile.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 46.3% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 135.6 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week.. The projections expect Alvin Kamara to accrue 18.1 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs.. The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

Right now, the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the NFL (44.0% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Falcons.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 135.6 total plays run: the most among all games this week.. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, New Orleans's unit has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in the league. in the league.