Falcons @ Saints Picks & Props

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Saints to pass on 53.7% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 142.5 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. Chris Olave has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 26.7% this year, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers. Chris Olave has totaled significantly more air yards this year (106.0 per game) than he did last year (57.0 per game).

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 142.5 total plays run: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. While Darnell Mooney has earned 15.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Atlanta's passing attack near the end zone in this contest at 22.8%. Darnell Mooney has compiled significantly more air yards this year (84.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game). Darnell Mooney ranks in the 76th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with an astounding 51.3 figure this year.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 142.5 total plays run: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Our trusted projections expect Kyle Pitts to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game near the goal line in this game (25.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.1% in games he has played). Kyle Pitts has accrued far more air yards this season (43.0 per game) than he did last season (36.0 per game). Kyle Pitts's 42.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 30.4.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Saints to pass on 53.7% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 142.5 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. Alvin Kamara has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 12.8% this year, which ranks him in the 88th percentile among running backs. When talking about air yards, Alvin Kamara ranks in the lofty 94th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a massive 4.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Saints to pass on 53.7% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 142.5 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. Juwan Johnson has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which ranks him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs. Juwan Johnson has totaled many more air yards this season (45.0 per game) than he did last season (31.0 per game).

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 142.5 total plays run: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Bijan Robinson has totaled a monstrous 7.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to RBs. (That might not seem like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage). Bijan Robinson's 30.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 21.9. In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Falcons ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Saints to pass on 53.7% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 142.5 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. This year, the strong Atlanta Falcons run defense has given up a mere 0.80 TDs on the ground per game to opposing offenses: the 9th-smallest rate in the NFL.