Bills @ Texans Picks & Props

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. While Khalil Shakir has been responsible for 21.1% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in Buffalo's passing attack near the end zone in this contest at 26.5%. The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board. Khalil Shakir comes in as one of the most reliable receivers in the league, hauling in a terrific 78.1% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among wideouts. The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 3rd-best unit in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

The Texans will be forced to use backup quarterback Davis Mills this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. The Texans are a 6-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 61.9% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week. At the present time, the 9th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Houston Texans. The projections expect the Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.22 seconds per play.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. While Dawson Knox has accounted for 7.9% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be much more involved in Buffalo's passing offense near the end zone in this contest at 14.7%. The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board. The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 3rd-best unit in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. James Cook has accrued a monstrous 3.0 air yards per game this year: 89th percentile among RBs. (This might not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs average negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage). The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board. James Cook's 95.5% Adjusted Catch% this season illustrates a remarkable progression in his pass-catching ability over last season's 84.7% rate. The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 3rd-best unit in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

The Texans will be forced to use backup quarterback Davis Mills this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. The Texans are a 6-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 61.9% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week. At the present time, the 9th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Houston Texans. The projections expect the Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.22 seconds per play.

The Texans will be forced to use backup quarterback Davis Mills this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. The Texans are a 6-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 61.9% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week. At the present time, the 9th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Houston Texans. The projections expect the Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.22 seconds per play.

The Texans will be forced to use backup quarterback Davis Mills this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. The Texans are a 6-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 61.9% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week. At the present time, the 9th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Houston Texans. The projections expect the Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.22 seconds per play.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board. Josh Allen's 69.6% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a noteable improvement in his passing precision over last season's 64.7% rate. With a fantastic ratio of 1.64 per game (78th percentile), Josh Allen stands among the top TD throwers in football this year. The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 3rd-best unit in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.