Denver @ Buffalo props

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Bills being a giant 7.5-point favorite this week. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to pass on 53.9% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week. The Bills have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 54.9 plays per game. Dalton Kincaid's play as a receiver has declined this year, notching a measly 3.4 adjusted catches vs 4.6 last year. Dalton Kincaid's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 81.6% to 61.8%.

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Bills being a giant 7.5-point favorite this week. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to pass on 53.9% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week. The Bills have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 54.9 plays per game. Khalil Shakir's 80.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this year shows a noteable decrease in his receiving talent over last year's 86.7% mark. When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Denver's unit has been exceptional this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.

Courtland Sutton's 61.9% Adjusted Catch% this season represents an impressive drop-off in his receiving prowess over last season's 68.4% rate.

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Broncos being a heavy -7.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Broncos to pass on 59.7% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 132.4 offensive plays run: the lowest number on the slate this week. The Bills defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, tempting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (33.9 per game) this year. In regards to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Denver Broncos grades out as the best in the NFL this year.

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Broncos being a heavy -7.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Broncos to pass on 59.7% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 132.4 offensive plays run: the lowest number on the slate this week. The Bills defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, tempting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (33.9 per game) this year. Jaleel McLaughlin's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 84.2% to 96.2%.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have only 132.4 total plays called: the lowest number among all games this week. The Denver Broncos defense has been something of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (36.6 per game) this year. The Bills offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing attack metrics across the board. This year, the anemic Denver Broncos pass defense has been torched for a colossal 89.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 2nd-biggest rate in football.

Devaughn Vele has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Dawson Knox has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Mack Hollins has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Adam Trautman has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Troy Franklin has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Amari Cooper has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Ray Davis has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Marvin Mims has gone over 3.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Lil'Jordan Humphrey has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Javonte Williams has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Ty Johnson has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Nate Adkins has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Keon Coleman has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.