Miami @ New England props

A throwing game script is implied by the Patriots being a -4.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may drop-off. Since the start of last season, the deficient Dolphins pass defense has been torched for a staggering 69.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-biggest rate in football. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Miami's unit has been very bad this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in football.

The Dolphins will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tyler Huntley in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. The 7th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a whopping 60.2 per game on average). The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may go down. The New England Patriots linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

A throwing game script is implied by the Patriots being a -4.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may drop-off. The leading projections forecast Hunter Henry to total 5.1 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to tight ends. Hunter Henry's 48.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 33.2. With an outstanding 3.5 adjusted receptions per game (84th percentile) this year, Hunter Henry places among the best TE receiving threats in the NFL.

A throwing game script is implied by the Patriots being a -4.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may drop-off. Demario Douglas has been used less as a potential target this season (75.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (59.2%). Demario Douglas's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 64.1% to 87.3%. Since the start of last season, the deficient Dolphins pass defense has been torched for a staggering 69.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-biggest rate in football.

A throwing game script is implied by the Patriots being a -4.5-point underdog in this week's contest. In this game, Rhamondre Stevenson is projected by our trusted projection set to place in the 75th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.2 targets. Rhamondre Stevenson has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 12.5% this year, which ranks him in the 88th percentile among running backs. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Miami's unit has been very bad this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in football.

A throwing game script is implied by the Patriots being a -4.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may drop-off. This week, Antonio Gibson is projected by the model to finish in the 84th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.6 targets. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Miami's unit has been very bad this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in football.

The Dolphins will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tyler Huntley in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. The 7th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a whopping 60.2 per game on average). The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may go down. Devon Achane's receiving performance has gotten a boost this year, totaling 5.0 adjusted catches vs a mere 2.5 last year. Since the start of last season, the deficient New England Patriots pass defense has conceded a massive 86.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 6th-worst rate in the NFL.

The Dolphins will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tyler Huntley in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. The 7th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a whopping 60.2 per game on average). The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may go down. Our trusted projections expect Tyreek Hill to total 7.8 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to WRs. The New England Patriots linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

Ja'Lynn Polk has gone over 2.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.

Jaylen Waddle has gone over 3.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Odell Beckham has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 9 games.

Austin Hooper has gone over 1.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.

Tyquan Thornton has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 6 games.

Kayshon Boutte has gone over 0.5 in 10 of his last 10 games.