San Francisco @ Tampa Bay props

A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest. Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect Sterling Shepard to be a more important option in his offense's passing game this week (15.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.9% in games he has played). Sterling Shepard's 2.5 adjusted receptions per game this season indicates a substantial progression in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 1.0 figure. With a stellar 74.9% Adjusted Catch% (75th percentile) this year, Sterling Shepard rates among the most sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to wide receivers.

Opposing offenses have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 4th-most in the league. The leading projections forecast George Kittle to total 7.1 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs. George Kittle's 55.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 48.4. George Kittle's 5.8 adjusted receptions per game this year illustrates a noteable growth in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 4.0 rate. George Kittle's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 72.7% to 82.5%.

Opposing offenses have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 4th-most in the league. With an impressive 79.5% Route Participation% (100th percentile) last year, Christian McCaffrey rates as one of the pass-catching RBs with the most usage in football. This week, Christian McCaffrey is expected by the predictive model to position himself in the 94th percentile among running backs with 5.4 targets. Christian McCaffrey profiles as one of the top pass-game RBs last year, averaging a terrific 4.2 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 98th percentile. With a remarkable 85.3% Adjusted Completion% (77th percentile) last year, Christian McCaffrey rates among the best possession receivers in the league when it comes to RBs.

A running game script is suggested by the 49ers being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game. The model projects the 49ers as the 6th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Deebo Samuel has been used less as a potential target this season (70.0% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (90.2%). Deebo Samuel's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 69.3% to 60.8%.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest. Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. In this game, Rachaad White is forecasted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.6 targets. With a stellar 3.9 adjusted receptions per game (96th percentile) this year, Rachaad White has been as one of the leading pass-game running backs in the NFL. The 49ers pass defense has allowed the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (88.6%) to running backs this year (88.6%).

A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest. Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The projections expect Cade Otton to notch 8.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among tight ends. Cade Otton has been a more integral piece of his team's passing attack this season (20.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (12.8%). Cade Otton's 4.9 adjusted catches per game this season represents a noteworthy boost in his receiving talent over last season's 2.9 figure.

Jauan Jennings has gone over 3.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Bucky Irving has gone over 2.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Ricky Pearsall has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Ryan Miller has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Trey Palmer has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Kyle Juszczyk has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Jalen McMillan has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Rakim Jarrett has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.