Houston @ Baltimore props

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 137.0 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. Zay Flowers has run a route on 91.8% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to WRs. In this game, Zay Flowers is anticipated by the predictive model to finish in the 85th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.8 targets. When it comes to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Baltimore Ravens ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year. Zay Flowers rates as one of the top wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a terrific 4.9 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

This game's spread implies an extreme rushing game script for the Ravens, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to pass on 49.8% of their chances: the lowest clip among all teams this week. The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the best unit in football this year in covering receivers.

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Texans being a massive -9.5-point underdog this week. Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Texans are anticipated by the projections to call 67.9 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense this year: most in the NFL. The leading projections forecast Nico Collins to notch 10.4 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among wideouts. Nico Collins's 5.3 adjusted receptions per game this season indicates a noteworthy gain in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 3.7 figure.

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Texans being a massive -9.5-point underdog this week. Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Texans are anticipated by the projections to call 67.9 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense this year: most in the NFL. In this game, Devin Singletary is projected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.3 targets.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 137.0 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. Gus Edwards's 26.4% Route Participation Rate this year reflects an impressive gain in his pass attack volume over last year's 9.6% mark. When it comes to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Baltimore Ravens ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year. With an exceptional 100.0% Adjusted Catch Rate (100th percentile) this year, Gus Edwards rates as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among RBs. The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst safety corps in the league this year in regard to pass rush.

Robert Woods has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Andrew Beck has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Justice Hill has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Rashod Bateman has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Charlie Kolar has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

John Metchie III has gone over 2.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Nelson Agholor has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Brevin Jordan has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Odell Beckham Jr. has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Xavier Hutchinson has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.