New York @ Miami props

The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.2% pass rate. Durham Smythe's 72.6% Route Participation Rate this year indicates a a meaningful boost in his pass attack utilization over last year's 27.1% mark. Durham Smythe's 2.8 adjusted receptions per game this season reflects a a noteworthy progression in his pass-catching skills over last season's 1.2 rate. With an outstanding 80.9% Adjusted Catch Rate (77th percentile) this year, Durham Smythe rates as one of the most reliable receivers in football when it comes to tight ends. The Giants safeties project as the 5th-worst unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Giants are an enormous 13-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Giants to pass on 62.0% of their plays: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week. The leading projections forecast the Giants offense as the 9th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.57 seconds per play. In this week's contest, Darren Waller is projected by the predictive model to find himself in the 94th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.6 targets. Darren Waller has been among the best pass-game tight ends this year, averaging an impressive 3.6 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.

The Giants are an enormous 13-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Giants to pass on 62.0% of their plays: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week. The leading projections forecast the Giants offense as the 9th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.57 seconds per play. In this game, Matt Breida is expected by the model to place in the 91st percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.3 targets. Matt Breida's pass-catching performance been refined this season, totaling 2.2 adjusted catches vs a measly 1.2 last season.

The Giants are an enormous 13-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Giants to pass on 62.0% of their plays: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week. The leading projections forecast the Giants offense as the 9th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.57 seconds per play. With a terrific 4.0 adjusted receptions per game (76th percentile) since the start of last season, Wan'Dale Robinson ranks as one of the top WRs in the game in the league. This year, the shaky Miami Dolphins pass defense has conceded a staggering 72.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 3rd-biggest rate in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.2% pass rate. The projections expect Tyreek Hill to earn 9.7 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts. Tyreek Hill's 77.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 97th percentile for WRs. Tyreek Hill has been among the best wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 6.9 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 95th percentile. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, New York's collection of CBs has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in football.

Braxton Berrios has gone over 2.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.

Darius Slayton has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Raheem Mostert has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Jaylen Waddle has gone over 4.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.