Jacksonville @ Buffalo props

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are predicted by the projection model to call only 62.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-fewest among all teams this week. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (just 28.8 per game) this year. The Bills linebackers project as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 68.0% pass rate. The model projects James Cook to earn 3.2 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs. James Cook's 17.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 10.4. James Cook's receiving skills have been refined this year, totaling 2.7 adjusted receptions compared to a measly 1.3 last year. The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (89.6%) to RBs this year (89.6%).

The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 68.0% pass rate. The leading projections forecast Stefon Diggs to earn 10.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts. Stefon Diggs has been an integral part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 29.9% this year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among wideouts. The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board. Stefon Diggs's receiving talent has been refined this year, compiling 7.9 adjusted catches vs a mere 6.8 last year.

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are expected by the projection model to call just 62.5 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-lowest number on the slate this week. This year, the tough Jaguars defense has conceded a measly 63.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 5th-best rate in the league.

The Jaguars are a 5.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game. With an impressive 84.0% Route% (97th percentile) this year, Evan Engram stands as one of the TEs with the most usage in the league. Evan Engram's receiving performance has gotten better this year, compiling 6.1 adjusted receptions vs a measly 4.3 last year.

The Jaguars are a 5.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game. In this week's game, Christian Kirk is projected by the model to finish in the 84th percentile among wide receivers with 7.4 targets. With a stellar 5.9 adjusted catches per game (90th percentile) this year, Christian Kirk places among the best pass-catching WRs in the league.

Calvin Ridley has gone over 4.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Trent Sherfield has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Gabe Davis has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Dawson Knox has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.