Dallas @ Connecticut picks

The Dallas Wings have come close, but have yet to secure their first win of the season. That changes tonight, and it will be exactly what they need to get in the winning groove. The Wings have shown that they can indeed be competitive with three of their last four matchups being decided by a single-digit margin. With a completely new starting lineup, the Sun haven't quite figured out how to overcome the challenges of what they have lost, and another disadvantage they'll have to face is Dijonai Carrington, who spent her first four seasons with Connecticut. Any juice that the Sun have left, Carrington is sure to have the answer to in order for Dallas to have the upper hand. Besides Carrington, the Wings are led by Arike Ogunbowale, Paige Bueckers, and Maddy Siegrist, which will be a lot for a veteran like Tina Charles to manage and outscore.

Arike Ogunbowale has been one of the most consistent scorers in the WNBA over the past six seasons, averaging 20.4 ppg for her career. But she’s off to a slow start in 2025, putting up just 12.5 ppg so far in her first four games. That start includes a surprising two games where Ogunbowale has been held to single digits. She is shooting a shockingly low 28.6% from the floor to start the year, and just 21.4% from three-point range. While we can expect those numbers to bounce back eventually, those aren’t numbers that signal a typical slump: they suggest an underlying issue that will have to be fixed. Ogunbowale has only scored 18+ points once in her first four games, and that only came when she played 35 minutes last Wednesday. I don’t see that usage being repeated tonight, and in a slow-paced, low scoring game against Connecticut, I’m taking the Under on her scoring total.