College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

When it comes to monster favorites in the Big Dance, those powerful programs live up to the hype. Since 1998, favorites of -28 or higher are 13-9 ATS. Duke’s plan for Round 1 is to build a lead, sit the starters, and begin looking ahead to the Round of 32. That doesn’t mean the Blue Devils can’t also cover this spread. Going back to the non-conference slate, the Dukies laid spreads of 30+ and creamed those mid-major foes behind a bench scoring more than 36 points per game. 

Cameron Boozer dominated his way to an average of 22.5 ppg, and the books have decided to set his points prop right at that average. Against an overwhelmed Siena squad, we should expect Boozer to have an above-average game.

McNeese thrives in slowing down a game and turning rebounds and free throws into points. That is more a reflection of Southland deficiencies than McNeese strengths, and the Commodores lack those deficiencies.

North Dakota State doesn’t have the same size inside that MSU’s Big Ten foes boast, topping out at 6-foot-9 in the starting lineup. That means there less deterrent for Carr to attack the rim. He’s scored 12 or more points in eight of the past 14 games and projections sit between 13 and 14 points on Thursday night.

The Razorbacks put up a whopping 89.9 ppg thanks to a highly-efficient offense and blistering pace. With superstar freshman Darius Acuff Jr. running the point, Arkansas turns the ball over at the lowest rate in the country while ranking eighth in 3PT% (38.9%). Hawaii powered to the Big West championship thanks to its impressive defensive play. But while mid-major teams might struggle to score against Hawaii's imposing size, Arkansas won't be fazed. The Rainbow Warriors don't have the athleticism to match up with Arkansas and their speedy tempo will ensure plenty of possessions in this game.

Before Caleb Wilson’s injury, the Tar Heels ranked in the Top 15 in turnover rate on offense. Since his injury, they rank 135th.

The VCU Rams have been playing on a razor’s edge for two months. Living life on that edge can end badly, and in time it will, but it should provide some intensity against the North Carolina Tar Heels, particularly as they are without their best player and have lost their last two games.

Howard’s opponents draw a free throw rate on average at 38.5%, which is one of the highest in the field. Michigan hasn’t really played any team this season with a number that high, but you have to legitimately worry about the twin-tower combo of Yaxel Lendeborg and Aday Mara fouling out the entire Bison frontcourt. 

Dybantsa leads the country in scoring with 25.3 ppg. He reached another level after BYU lost Richie Saunders to a season-ending injury, clearing 27.5 points in seven games since February. While Dybantsa went just below this number with 26 points in his last contest, that came against Houston's elite defense. He'll have an easier team scoring against Texas who sit outside the top 300 in opponent FT rate and opponent 3PT% (36%). Dybantsa can score at all three levels and averages a whopping 8.4 FTA per game. His improved perimeter shooting and ability to draw fouls will lead to a big game here.

It is easier to speed up a slow team than it is to slow down a fast team. With depth and ball pressure, Texas A&M should speed up this first-round matchup. And with both teams showing quality from beyond the arc, any amount of hot shooting could turn pace into a barnburner.

Tired legs from any illness will make TJ Power’s shots tougher, and the NCAA Tournament is notorious for overinflating the balls, emphasizing the negative impacts of any contact with the rim on a long-range shot.

This matchup screams pace. Both teams rank Top 50 in tempo and thrive in transition offensively, while struggling to defend it. That’s the perfect recipe for a track meet. Expect constant push, quick shots, and minimal resistance in the open floor. That’s exactly the environment you want when backing an Over this high.

Saint Louis has a few edges over UGA, starting with the fact they actually play defense. The Billikens also run deep, able to keep fresh capable scorers on the floor. And most importantly, SLU can light it up from long range. Georgia’s 3-point shooting runs hot and cold while Saint Louis shoots better than 40% from beyond the arc and averages over 10 triples an outing. Game models have this as one of the closest contests of the Round of 64 with forecasts between one and two points for UGA. 

Gonzaga wing Davis Fogle didn't see much of the floor earlier in the season but an injury to Braden Huff opened up minutes in the lineup for the four-star freshman. Fogle averaged just 8.3 mpg in his first 14 contests but that's surged to 23.9 mpg over his last 14 games. He's fresh off a career-best performance in the conference tournament final, tallying 13 points, eight rebounds, and six assists in 27 minutes. He's cleared 4.5 boards in three straight games and will get plenty of rebounding opportunities against the Owls who play at a blistering pace and sit outside the top 250 in rebounds allowed per game. 

In the last four games in which the Cougars were favored by at least 10 points, Flemings has fallen short of this prop in all four and averaged 10 points.

Kentucky’s transition offense is elite, scoring an absurd 1.44 points per play (99th percentile). That’s where Oweh thrives as he’s responsible for team leading 7% of Kentucky’s transition scoring. Santa Clara, meanwhile, allows 1.28 points per play in transition (one of the worst nationally). That’s a problem against Kentucky as a whole, but it’s a big issue against one of the best transition scorers in the SEC. 

Akron ranks Top 10 in eFG%, and ranks Top 15 in accuracy both inside and outside the arc. The Zips knock down FTs when they get to the line, operate at a breakneck pace, and have nine players who can provide offensive output off the bench. If Texas Tech goes cold from deep, its season could end in a hurry.

Try to find somewhere for Akron to go on offense. Transition where they are overly reliant? Texas Tech clamps that at the 99th percentile. Other key tenets of their offense, like attack and kick actions, are also shut down at the 90th percentile. I don’t know how Akron hangs because I don’t know how the Zips score. 

In what should be a blowout there's value in backing LIU players on their props. The Wildcats play at a blistering pace and once they build a big lead, they could rest some of their top players and won't be quite as locked in. LIU forward Shadrak Lasu has grabbed at least six boards in 11 of his last 15 games, averaging 7.1 rpg over that span. The Sharks have an extremely small lineup and Lasu is easily their biggest player at 6-foot-9. They'll need him on the court as much as possible against Arizona's imposing frontcourt.

While I projected this number at 61.5, it's easy to see this one snowballing fast, Wright State pressing and things totally crashing. The Wright State offense is so rim driven and you’re looking at a team in UVA that has been one of the elite teams in the country this season defensively at the rim. Ask Duke’s Cam Boozer who went 3/17 against them in the ACC Tournament Championship game. 

Joshua Jefferson's passing ability makes him one of my favorite players to watch. The Tigers, despite their athleticism, are a poor defensive team, especially against bigs cutting off rolls and drive and kick actions, where they rank in the bottom 25%. Jefferson is the primary passer in both spots, putting him in a strong position to generate assists if the game stays even moderately competitive.

Hofstra has a legit backcourt, and the Alabama defense is, well, average to put it kindly. Cruz Davis averages 10 points per 100 possessions solely at the rim. The Tide have been poor there all season, especially after Charles Bediako was ruled ineligible, allowing over a point per possession on plays tagged as “rim attacks” by Synergy.

Hofstra checks a lot of boxes when it comes to mid-majors giving power conference foes fits. The Pride rebound well, defend the rim, shoot the 3-ball, and have game-breaking scorer in Cruz Davis (20.2 PPG). Alabama's defense is still soft and will struggle to keep Hofstra from the offensive glass. Game models vary, with one calling for a 14-point margin but others down to 11 and even 7 points. 

Tennessee can do a masterful job of imposing its style on you. If it does it here, it’ll mean plenty of half-court possessions. That means we should see plenty of bigs cutting to the rim from pick-and-rolls. Carey is an imposing body who can make his presence felt against a smaller team, and he’s the feature of these actions. Something that the Redhawks have ranked in the bottom 20% of college basketball defensively against this season. 

The Northern Iowa Panthers are my opening round long shot. Since the start of February, the Panthers have ranked in the Top 15 in 3-point accuracy. That’s important for a team that operates as slowly as it does. The Panthers are also fifth in that span in eFG%.

Johnnies forward Zuby Ejiofor averaged more than seven rebounds amongst the trees of the Big East. Northern Iowa has a couple starters that run 6-foot-8 but are nowhere near Ejofor’s level of athleticism. For the most part, the Panthers don’t bother crashing the offensive glass and face their toughest challenge against this St. John’s defense. Ejiofor is also active on the offensive boards (3.3 per game). Ejiofor was a beast on the glass in the Big East tournament and projections call for 8+ rebounds versus UNI.

Dent dished out a dozen assists in his first two Big Ten tournament games before getting hurt and averaged almost 10 assists in the 12 games prior to that minor injury. Dent is fine for the opener against Central Florida. The Golden Knights are one of the weakest defenses the Bruins have faced in a while, with UCF giving up 14 assists an outing and taking on a UCLA offense that ranks Top 40 in assist ratio. Projections sit as high as 10.3 assists from Dent on Friday.

Kansas’ offense was in the toilet in the home stretch, especially in the opening 20 minutes. It’s averaged less than 33 first-half points in the past 10 outings, scoring fewer than 30 in four of those games. The Lancers slow things down, protect the perimeter, and allow the 10th fewest 1H points per game in the country. Kansas has gone 3-7 Over/Under on its first half team totals over the past 10 games.

His recent output was tempered due to lineup changes, with the Paladins going smaller in the conference tournament. He scored 14 points in 24 minutes in each of the first two games before striking for 21 in 30 minutes in the final. He’s tallied 12 or more points in 14 of his last 17 games and is projected for 13 points Friday. Bowser has logged 30+ minutes just six times since returning from injury in early February but averages 16.7 points in those games. He’ll play major minutes vs. UConn.