College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

These teams play at two of the slowest paces in the country, and when combined, possessions will be at a premium even if both sides have efficent shooters on the court. There simply won't be enough opportunities for points to hit this total, so I'm taking the Under.

Yale has one of the most prolific offenses of any mid-major team, checking in at 35th in adjusted efficiency (KenPom). They rank 24th in effective field goal percentage (56.1%) and average 81.8 PPG. Yale is 9-3 O/U in non-conference matchups, when its defense (202nd in adjusted efficiency) generally fails to match the offense. 

Stephen F. Austin really struggled to find points in the conference tournament. That’s not surprising for an offense ranked 303rd in 2-point accuracy since the start of February.

The Lumberjacks struggle to earn or make free throws, and they rank just 267th in assist rate.  

Tulsa’s offense likes to run, but a slower pace may favor the Golden Hurricane here. They’ve actually performed better against more methodical opponents, with their efficient offense still putting up points.

Both teams defend the perimeter well and take care of the basketball. I expect more calculated possessions, and a score that goes south of the total.

These teams combined for 199 points when they clashed in November and we should get another shootout here. Both teams are significantly better on offense than defense. Texas sits outside the Top 300 in opponent turnover rate and opponent 3PT%, while the Wolfpack take care of the ball and shoots a sizzling 38.8% from deep. Meanwhile, NC State has surrendered more than 80 points in six straight games and ranks 348th in opponent eFG% (57.8%) since the start of February. That's bad news against a Longhorns attack that is 61st in eFG% (54.2%), controls the offensive glass, and gets to the line at the fourth-highest rate in Div 1.

Texas Christian enters the NCAA playing its best basketball of the season, with its only loss in the past month to Kansas in the Big 12 tournament (6-1 ATS). The Horned Frogs can poke a soft spot for OSU, which coughs the ball up too much. TCU is terrific at flipping those mistakes into buckets, forcing almost 14 turnovers for 16 POTOV per game. 

Defensively, UL matches up well against South Florida. The Bulls thrive on causing chaos, picking up points off turnovers and crashing the glass for offensive putbacks. The Cardinals love to run and are one of the better rebounding teams in the country and don’t allow many second-chance buckets. The Bulls sell out to stop interior scoring but can get torched by outside shooting. When UL has all its weapons, the Cardinals knock down the fifth most triples in the country and shoot almost 36% from deep.

Wisconsin fires up the third most 3-pointers in the country and hits its share too, pushing its average points north of 80. High Point is also trigger happy from distance, knocking down nine triples and scoring 86.5 points per game – 10th most in the land. The Panthers also like to push the pace, sitting Top 50 in tempo, which is just fine for the Badgers’ backcourt duo of John Blackwell and Nick Boyd. They combined for 51 points per game over three Big Ten tournament contests.

The Tar Heels aren’t a great 3-point shooting team, and they leave far too many points at the foul line. I question UNC’s motivations in March. VCU, however, has been fighting for its life for the past two months after sitting on the bubble until the A-10 tournament win. Virginia Commonwealth attacks on every level: drawing fouls, crashing the glass, and playing tight defense. The Rams won’t be intimidated by UNC’s pedigree either, having played a tough non-conference slate.

Saint Louis has a few edges over UGA, starting with the fact they actually play defense. The Billikens also run deep, able to keep fresh capable scorers on the floor. And most importantly, SLU can light it up from long range. Georgia’s 3-point shooting runs hot and cold while Saint Louis shoots better than 40% from beyond the arc and averages over 10 triples an outing. Game models have this as one of the closest contests of the Round of 64 with forecasts between one and two points for UGA. 

Hofstra checks a lot of boxes when it comes to mid-majors giving power conference foes fits. The Pride rebound well, defend the rim, shoot the 3-ball, and have game-breaking scorer in Cruz Davis (20.2 PPG). Alabama's defense is still soft and will struggle to keep Hofstra from the offensive glass. Game models vary, with one calling for a 14-point margin but others down to 11 and even 7 points.