Toronto Raptors Picks
2nd in Atlantic
(2 - 0)
Next Game
TOR @ MIN Picks
NBA PicksLeonard has swiped two steals in just over half of his career games, doing so in 405 of 800 appearances. He sports a career average of 1.7 steals per game, and he’s recorded 3+ in each of his first two games of the 2025-26 campaign.
Given Leonard’s elite defensive skills and history of racking up steals, I price this line closer to 55%, making it a value at 53%.
Toronto’s starting center, seven-footer Jakob Poeltl, averaged only seven rebounds per game across 25 minutes last season, and his numbers aren’t much different in 2025-26, averaging 7.5 rebounds across 24.5 minutes.
Toronto’s backup centers are 6’9 or shorter, and the Raptors have no problem playing small ball, which will be beneficial for Gobert. In what should be a defensive battle with plenty of missed shots, I’ll trade Gobert’s rebound line to 50%.
The Game Total Under hit in three of the last four head-to-head meetings, and I’ll trade this line down to 228.5.
Toronto owns the top Defensive Rating in the NBA at 88.6, and Minnesota ranks third at 96.1. The teams rank first and second in opponent three-point percentage, and Toronto has allowed opponents to shoot the least efficient field-goal percentage at 34.8.
Fading Minnesota hasn't paid off to start the season, but I'll back Toronto with the Raptors trading at 41%. I may be undervaluing LaMelo Ball's impact in my projections, but Toronto is an Eastern Conference contender with value at this price. Kawhi Leonard, Scottie Barnes, and Immanuel Quickley can all exploit Rudy Gobert's drop coverage with their mid-range games, giving the Raptors multiple ways to attack Minnesota's defense.
These are the two stingiest perimeter defenses in the NBA, but Toronto isn’t reliant on its outside shooting and is the more complete team on both ends of the floor. In a game that's essentially a Pick 'Em, I'll take the visitors.
Toronto’s offense has run through Scottie Barnes through the first two games. He’s averaging 25.5 points, 10 rebounds and five assists and ranks 10th in Usage among players averaging 25+ mpg. The do-it-all forward will need to be at his best against a strong Minnesota team. He’s coming off a 47 PRA performance against the Wizards, and I’ll trade this combo line up to 36.5.
Consensus Picks
More Consensus46% picking Toronto vs Minnesota to go Under
Total PicksTOR 143, MIN 124
TOR @ MIN · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
POINTS SCORED
J. Kuminga
(PF)
o11.5 Points Scored
14.40 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.9
DIFFERENCE
25.42%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
J. Poeltl
(C)
o8.5 Points Scored
9.94 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
21.76%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
K. Leonard
(SF)
u24.5 Points Scored
22.27 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.2
DIFFERENCE
20.85%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
J. Shead
(PG)
o5.5 Points Scored
6.96 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
17.99%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
R. Gobert
(C)
o8.5 Points Scored
9.86 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
16.98%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
S. Barnes
(PF)
u19.5 Points Scored
17.89 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.6
DIFFERENCE
16.14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
A. Dosunmu
(SG)
u12.5 Points Scored
12.04 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
7.36%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
R. Barrett
(SF)
o17.5 Points Scored
18.56 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
2.33%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
J. McDaniels
(PF)
u13.5 Points Scored
13.35 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-1.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
A. Edwards
(SG)
o27.5 Points Scored
27.52 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-7.74%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
C. Murray-Boyles
(PF)
u5.5 Total Rebounds
4.67 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
14.11%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
J. McDaniels
(PF)
o4.5 Total Rebounds
5.16 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
8.9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
R. Barrett
(SF)
o5.5 Total Rebounds
5.65 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
8.5%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
J. Poeltl
(C)
o6.5 Total Rebounds
7.37 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
1.52%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
L. Ball
(PG)
o4.5 Total Rebounds
4.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-0.66%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
I. Quickley
(PG)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
3.69 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-3.75%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
J. Shead
(PG)
o1.5 Total Rebounds
1.81 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-6.75%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
R. Gobert
(C)
o10.5 Total Rebounds
10.64 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-7.94%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
A. Edwards
(SG)
o3.5 Total Assists
3.79 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
15.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
K. Leonard
(SF)
u3.5 Total Assists
2.84 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
13.22%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
J. Poeltl
(C)
o1.5 Total Assists
2.20 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
12.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
S. Barnes
(PF)
u5.5 Total Assists
5.38 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
4.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
R. Barrett
(SF)
u3.5 Total Assists
3.11 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
0.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
L. Ball
(PG)
o6.5 Total Assists
6.69 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-8.53%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
I. Quickley
(PG)
o5.5 Total Assists
5.58 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-8.93%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
R. Gobert
(C)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.55 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-10%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
C. Murray-Boyles
(PF)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.60 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-13.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
J. Shead
(PG)
u4.5 Total Assists
4.30 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
L. Ball
(PG)
u3.5 3-Pointers Made
2.90 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
17.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
J. McDaniels
(PF)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.27 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
3.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
S. Barnes
(PF)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
1.08 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
2.03%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
MIN
T. Shannon Jr.
(SG)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
1.14 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-1.05%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
R. Barrett
(SF)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.57 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-4.3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
T. Lyles
(PF)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
0.81 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-6.09%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
TOR @ MIN · Trends
Top User Picks
More Picks'goucla' picks Toronto vs Minnesota to go Over (231.5)
goucla is #1 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'dispnum1' picks Toronto vs Minnesota to go Under (231.5)
dispnum1 is #2 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'vwebb57' picks Toronto vs Minnesota to go Over (230.5)
vwebb57 is #2 on picking games that Toronto is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'Sandsaver727' picks Toronto vs Minnesota to go Under (231.5)
Sandsaver727 is #3 on picking games that Toronto is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'Gunner28' picks Toronto vs Minnesota to go Under (230.5)
Gunner28 is #4 on picking games that Toronto is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'bauer2015' picks Toronto vs Minnesota to go Under (230.5)
bauer2015 is #4 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'Raw72' picks Toronto vs Minnesota to go Under (230.5)
Raw72 is #5 on picking games that Toronto is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'sandhog1' picks Toronto vs Minnesota to go Over (231.5)
sandhog1 is #6 on picking games that Toronto is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'alfimar10045' picks Toronto vs Minnesota to go Under (229.5)
alfimar10045 is #6 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'lsbellmom' picks Toronto vs Minnesota to go Under (230.5)
lsbellmom is #7 on picking games that Toronto is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'nogame' picks Toronto vs Minnesota to go Under (231.5)
nogame is #8 on picking games that Toronto is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'PMaeson' picks Toronto vs Minnesota to go Under (231.5)
PMaeson is #9 on picking games that Toronto is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.