New York Knicks

Picks

There seems to be a general consensus that the New York Knicks will have a letdown in Game 5 and return home to win the NBA Finals in Game 6. I'm not buying it. Throughout these playoffs, the Knicks have been ruthless in closeout opportunities, beating the Hawks by 51, the Sixers by 30, and the Cavaliers by 37. I think New York has a legitimate chance to close out the series in San Antonio, which is why I'm happy to grab the +5.5. That’s a strong number when the film has you thinking the Knicks can win the game outright. I make the Knicks closer to a 2.5-point underdog in this matchup. I also think the Knicks discovered something in Game 4 that could carry over into Game 5: more minutes for Jose Alvarado as a screener for Brunson, a pressure-release valve, and a secondary ball-handler. If the Spurs never build that 29-point lead, the Knicks may never uncover that adjustment.

Those seven assists in Game 4 marked the first time in the past six postseason games that Brunson finished Over his assists total. This sudden shift in sharing the basketball wasn’t really Brunson’s doing but more a result of the Knicks having to scrap their initial offensive schemes for Game 4. Game 5 has Brown going back to his game plan of running Towns as a facilitator at the high post and involving Brunson in screen action away from ball, in order to get away from his dribble-heavy showing in Game 3’s loss and expose the switching issues that plagued the San Antonio Spurs during the Knicks’ rally. Brunson's early projections sit above six assists for Saturday, which is nothing new. His projections have repeatedly landed north of this number during the playoffs, yet the Under on assists is 6-2 in his last eight postseason showings.

The Knicks have been ruthless in closeout situations, winning their previous three road series-clinchers in these playoffs by 51, 30, and 37 points. That's not a team that lets opponents linger. San Antonio has also struggled whenever adversity strikes in this series, particularly in the fourth quarter where they've been consistently outplayed. With a championship within reach, I expect New York to deliver a focused, complete-game performance.

Harper is clearly the Spurs’ best guard in this series, outplaying both Fox and Stephon Castle. He has notched at least three assists in each of the last three games, playing 32 minutes in each and with a usage rate of at least 22.1% in them after playing only 28 minutes in Game 1 with a usage rate of 19.0%.

Once Towns was back on the court in full on Wednesday, he returned to his effectiveness. He finished with 10 rebounds despite playing less than 26 minutes. He snagged seven boards once free of his shackles in the second half.

With an added day off, Wembanyama should be ready to charge forward in Game 5, and he has always preferred shooting at home. Some consideration could be put into betting the Over on his 3-pointers prop, set at 1.5 but juiced to -200. An extra day off before Game 3 helped Wembanyama to an 11-of-21 showing for 32 points, despite shooting only four 3-pointers. Expect a 3-of-7 or 3-of-8 showing from long range as Wembanyama again reaches 30 points in Game 5.

Karl-Anthony Towns sat for most of the first half of Game 4 but was ready to roll in the second half, playing 18 of 24 minutes. His offense, however, was understandably spotty and much like Game 3, Towns couldn’t get into rhythm. Mike Brown’s plan for Game 4 was to get Towns going early, but that went out the window. I’m not backing off KAT in Game 5. He salvaged 13 points Wednesday, not too short of his total of 17.5, considering the circumstances. Projections sit as high as 21+ with my number at 18.7 points, which should have Over 17.5 listed at -118.

The matchup against New York is a positive one for threes; when the Knicks are the visiting team, the other team's starting PFs have put up the 2nd-highest three percentage in the NBA this year (47.7%).. The Spurs check in as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).. Over the last 5 games, opposing starting PFs have attempted 5.2 free throws per game (5th-most in the NBA) vs. the Knicks, succeeding in their efforts to get to the charity stripe.

The matchup vs. New York is a favorable one for 3-pointers; when the New York Knicks are the visiting squad, the other team's starting SFs have compiled the highest three percentage in the league this year (48.0%).. The Spurs check in as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

De'Aaron Fox has posted 22.5 points per game over the last 8 games with the home court advantage, 4.7 higher than he's posted overall this season at home.. The Spurs check in as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).. This year, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 4.3 foul shots per game (6th-most in the NBA) against the New York Knicks, easily managing to draw fouls.

The Spurs check in as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

The 10th-slowest pace team in the league over the last 5 games has been the San Antonio Spurs.. The San Antonio Spurs are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this game from facing the least up-tempo tempo team in the league over the last 25 games (the Knicks).

The Spurs check in as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).